Illinois to face a steamy, storm-laced summer, say both Farmers’ Almanacs
As summer 2025 draws closer, both the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac are forecasting a blazing, turbulent season for the Prairie State. While these publications often spark nostalgic trust among their readers, their predictions should be taken with cautious interest rather than scientific certainty.
Farmers’ Almanac: Stormy skies and sweltering heat
According to the Farmers’ Almanac, Illinois is in for a “sultry, thunder-filled” summer. Beginning June 20, the almanac anticipates the season will launch with stormy, unsettled weather across much of the U.S., eventually giving way to intensifying heat by July.
The forecast warns of severe thunderstorms that could potentially disrupt Fourth of July festivities, while offering a brief respite with fairer conditions around Labor Day (September 1). The overall precipitation is expected to stay near average, though intense summer storms could still pack a punch locally.
The Farmers’ Almanac, in publication since 1818, bases its predictions on what it calls a “mathematical and astronomical formula”, factoring in sunspot activity, lunar tides, and planetary positions—explicitly rejecting modern satellite data and weather folklore (or groundhogs, for that matter). Despite bold claims of 80–85% accuracy, their methodology is not scientifically verified.
Old Farmer’s Almanac: Hot and rainy for Illinois
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1792, also projects a very hot summer nationwide, describing it as possibly another scorcher on par with last year. While much of the U.S. is expected to face hot, dry conditions, Illinois is an exception. The almanac forecasts “hot, rainy” weather across most of the state, driven by above-normal precipitation patterns typical south of the Great Lakes.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac leans more heavily on solar science, climatology, and meteorology to craft its seasonal guidance and also touts an 80% accuracy rate. However, a University of Illinois study from 2010, referenced by Popular Mechanics in 2022, found that its accuracy hovered around 52%, which is no better than a coin flip.
NOAA weighs in: Hotter than average, but uncertain rain outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offers a more scientifically grounded summer forecast. Its Climate Prediction Center anticipates that temperatures in Illinois are likely to trend above average through June, July, and August. However, when it comes to rainfall, NOAA says there are equal chances of it being above or below normal, suggesting no clear signal on precipitation levels at this stage.
