- Early tropical activity possible before the official season
- How the system could evolve and Florida’s potential exposure
- What history tells us about May storms
- 2025 hurricane season forecast: high risk for Florida
- What is a Central American Gyre and why does it matter?
- National Hurricane Center monitoring begins May 15
Early tropical activity possible before the official season
AccuWeather meteorologists have issued an early-season tropical weather alert: the first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could develop between May 15 and May 22, well ahead of the official start date of June 1.
This early activity is being linked to the potential formation of a Central American Gyre, a broad area of weak, counterclockwise low pressure that sometimes emerges around Central America. While not a tropical system itself, this gyre can help initiate the development of tropical depressions or storms in the Caribbean Sea or eastern Pacific Ocean.
How the system could evolve and Florida’s potential exposure
According to AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, while the likelihood of tropical formation in May remains low, the conditions could become favorable due to warming waters and reduced wind shear in the region. The setup could include a dip in the jet stream, creating just the right environment for a system to spin up.
If a tropical depression or storm does emerge, its most likely track would be northeastward, possibly passing over Jamaica, Cuba, and heading out to sea. While Florida is not currently in the storm’s projected path, South Florida could still experience tropical downpours, especially around or after May 20.
Even with low odds, localized flooding remains possible in Jamaica, Cuba, and parts of Central America, and residents across southern Florida should remain weather-aware as the middle to late May period unfolds.
What history tells us about May storms
May storms aren’t rare. Since 2003, 11 tropical cyclones have formed in May, including Tropical Storm Bertha, which made landfall in South Carolina in May 2020. Early-season development tends to happen closer to the U.S. coastline, which limits warning time. These systems also tend to move slowly, making them major flooding threats despite their lower wind speeds.
A few notable early-season tropical systems include:
- Tropical Storm Ana (May 22, 2021)
- Tropical Storm Arthur (May 16, 2020)
- Tropical Storm Alberto (May 25, 2018)
- Tropical Storm Beryl (May 26, 2012)
2025 hurricane season forecast: high risk for Florida
This year’s outlook from several forecasting groups is intense. Colorado State University anticipates:
- 17 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes
AccuWeather is slightly more cautious but still expects a robust season:
- 13 to 18 named storms
- 7 to 10 hurricanes
- 3 to 5 major hurricanes
- 3 to 6 storms could make direct impact on the U.S.
More critically, Florida has a 92% chance of being affected by a named storm, 65% for a hurricane, and 35% for a major hurricane, all the highest in the nation. This places Florida, especially Palm Beach County, at elevated risk even before the season officially begins.
What is a Central American Gyre and why does it matter?
A gyre is a slowly rotating area of low pressure, typically broad and disorganized, that forms near Central America. Though not a cyclone itself, it creates conditions conducive to storm formation when jet stream patterns, warm sea temperatures, and low wind shear align.
These gyres are responsible for past preseason tropical storms, and while they rarely develop into hurricanes directly, they often serve as the catalyst for tropical development.
National Hurricane Center monitoring begins May 15
Although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet issued any advisories, daily tropical outlooks will begin on May 15. Advisories could come earlier if signs of storm development become more pronounced, as occurred on March 17, when the NHC issued a preseason advisory for a non-tropical low off Florida’s coast.
