Weather outlook Florida: no early tropical storms for 2025

For the fourth year in a row, the Atlantic hurricane season is beginning without a named tropical storm forming before June 1. This marks a significant change from recent years, especially the early 2010s, when preseason storms sparked debates about moving the official season start earlier into May.

The last named storm to form before the season’s official start was back in 2021, with a system developing in late May. Since then, all first formations have occurred in June, more in line with the climatological norm. The current absence of early-season cyclones signals a break from the trend of preseason tropical activity, which previously persisted for seven consecutive years.

Meteorological parallels with the late 1990s

This pattern hasn’t been seen since the 1994–2002 period, during which storms largely waited until after June 1 to develop. While this year’s quiet start might seem unusual compared to recent decades, it’s not without precedent.

Notably, both 2024 and 2025 have now passed without the National Hurricane Center tracking any classified tropical systems before June, marking the first back-to-back years of such inactivity in more than a decade.

The importance of June 20 as a seasonal benchmark

Experts are now eyeing June 20, the average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic. If no system forms around that time, meteorologists will start monitoring how far into the season the first development will be delayed.

For this year, the first name on the list is Andrea, but forecasts show no indication it will form before June 1.

The last time the first named storm appeared on or after June 20 was in 2014, when Arthur formed on July 1. That season ended up relatively calm, with eight named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes—well below average.

Does a late start mean a quieter season? Not necessarily

Despite the historical tendency for late starts to correlate with less active seasons, exceptions exist. For instance, in 2005, the season started on June 10, but it produced a record-breaking 28 named storms, including catastrophic hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

Statistically, when no tropical storms form in June or early July, the season averages around nine named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. This reduced activity is partly due to less available time in the season—missing June means losing over 16% of the season’s duration, which stretches from June 1 to November 30.

What to expect this season

According to NOAA’s outlook, the 2025 season is still expected to be above normal, with forecasts calling for 6 to 10 hurricanes. That’s despite the absence of El Niño or La Niña patterns that often shape storm behavior.

The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico remain areas of focus, with the peak of the season historically arriving around September 10. But as meteorologists caution, a calm beginning doesn’t guarantee a peaceful season—even one landfalling storm can have devastating consequences.