A slow start to 2025 hurricane season in the Atlantic
For the fourth year in a row, the Atlantic Basin is about to officially enter hurricane season on June 1 without any named tropical storms forming beforehand. This pattern of calm before the storm recalls a similar stretch from 1994 to 2002, when no preseason cyclones developed for nearly a decade. The last time a system was named before June 1 was in 2021.
The idea of moving up the hurricane season start has lost steam
For years, early-season activity prompted meteorologists to reconsider the official start date of the hurricane season, with some suggesting it begin in mid-May. This was due to a seven-year streak when named storms reliably formed before June 1. But with recent seasons quieter up front, that conversation has faded, especially as no storms formed early in both 2024 and 2025.
No classified systems so far — but that doesn’t predict the rest
Even with this calm start, experts like FOX Weather’s Bryan Norcross emphasize it’s not necessarily a sign of a quiet season. In fact, NOAA’s outlook predicts an above-average season, estimating 6 to 10 hurricanes due to favorable large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
June 20: The first crucial date to watch
While June 1 marks the official start, meteorologists often look to June 20 as a key benchmark. It’s the average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic. If nothing develops around this time, concern shifts to how far into summer the first storm will appear.
This year, the first name on the list is Andrea, which is not expected to form before June begins.
What history tells us about late starts
Looking back, 2014 saw its first storm — Arthur — not until July 1. That year turned out less active, with just eight named systems, including six hurricanes and two major ones. By contrast, 2005, which didn’t begin until June 10, exploded with 28 named storms, including Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
So, while late starts often correlate with lower totals, they don’t guarantee calm waters. On average, years without June activity tend to yield nine named storms, five hurricanes, and two major ones.
Time lost means less opportunity for activity
With 183 days in the Atlantic hurricane season — from June 1 to November 30 — losing an entire month to inactivity means forfeiting 16% of the available window. And that’s time that can’t be regained later, since ocean temperatures drop and upper-level winds become less favorable into the fall.
Despite the quiet satellite view over the Atlantic as of May 24, forecasters caution: all it takes is one storm making landfall to define a season.
