A scorching summer is on the horizon for California
Summer 2025 is shaping up to be hotter than usual across California, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. With the official start of summer landing on Thursday, June 20, the Golden State is bracing for above-average temperatures throughout much of the region.
The outlook released on May 15 shows a 50% to 60% probability of hotter-than-normal conditions in northern and eastern parts of the state, while the southern coast faces a 40% to 50% chance of higher temperatures.
What above-average temperatures mean for California
“Normal” is based on the average recorded temperatures between 1991 and 2020. In places like Sacramento, there’s a roughly 53% chance of seeing hotter-than-average conditions. While the heat will impact most of California, regional differences are expected. For more precise information, the National Weather Service recommends checking interactive forecast maps tailored to specific areas.
Early heatwave forecast by late May
The first burst of unusual heat is projected between May 30 and June 5, with a 20% to 40% chance of extreme heat expected across portions of the Central Valley, especially between May 29 and May 31. That’s just the beginning of what could be a long and intense summer.
How summer heat ties into ongoing drought
As of now, over 22.7 million Californians are living in drought-affected areas. About 39.8% of the state is currently experiencing some level of drought, with classifications ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought. Hard-hit counties include Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Luis Obispo. Since summer is typically dry, drought conditions are expected to persist through at least the end of August.
Wildfire season expected to intensify
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, California’s wildfire season, which usually runs from May through November, is expected to be more intense than usual in 2025. The risk of significant wildfires is projected to be above normal statewide, especially between June and August. Forecasts for both Northern and Southern California indicate a markedly elevated potential for large, destructive fires by August, driven by heat and dry conditions.
A summer of extreme heat and environmental stress is poised to unfold across California, heightening concerns over drought and wildfire activity in the months ahead.
