Meteorologists monitor possible tropical development near Florida
A tropical system could develop off the southeast coast of Florida in the coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Forecasters say that if the system remains offshore, it could gradually take on subtropical or tropical characteristics by late this week.
Slow formation expected offshore
On Tuesday, NHC meteorologists reported that a non-tropical low-pressure area could form near or just off the southeastern U.S. coast. If it stays over open waters, it might begin to strengthen while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.
As of now, the chance of development remains low at 10% over both the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days, but it remains under close watch.
A favorable zone for early-season storms
Michael Brennan, director of the NHC, emphasized that this region is a climatologically favored area for early-season development. “This is where we usually see storms form in June—from the Gulf, across Florida, and off the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts,” Brennan told FOX Weather. “It’s a good reminder that June storms often develop pretty close to home.”
A very active hurricane season ahead
The possible tropical development comes just three days after the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. According to NOAA, the 2025 season is expected to be above normal, with 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes with winds over 111 mph (179 km/h).
Why 2025 is expected to be so active
Several atmospheric and oceanic factors are lining up to fuel a very active season:
The neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in place
The Atlantic Ocean is warmer than average
There is a lack of wind shear, a condition that normally disrupts tropical systems
This combination of warm water, stable upper-air patterns, and neutral ENSO conditions is setting the stage for frequent and potentially powerful tropical cyclones, some of which may form close to the U.S. mainland, as is being observed now off the Florida coast.
