Weather Houston: Stormy pattern to unfold midweek

A dry start to June gives way to a wetter trend

Houston, typically soaked in over 6 inches of rain during the month of June, has begun the season unusually dry. Through June 7, the city has collected just 0.22 inch (0.56 cm) of rainfall—only 16% of the monthly average. This lack of precipitation has pulled year-to-date totals to 17.33 inches (44 cm), now 3.21 inches (8.15 cm) below average, a gap that may begin to narrow in the coming days.

Sweltering Sunday ahead

On Sunday, residents of Houston, Conroe, The Woodlands, and Galveston will endure oppressive heat, waking to temperatures near 80°F (27°C) and extreme humidity. Although skies will start partly cloudy, sunshine will dominate by midday, pushing temperatures past 90°F (32°C) before noon.

The high temperature downtown is expected to reach 95°F (35°C), with northern suburbs such as Conroe trending even hotter. Coastal locations like Galveston may hold slightly cooler near 90°F (32°C). However, humidity will push heat index values to dangerous levels—between 103°F and 108°F (39°C to 42°C). This is the kind of heat where exhaustion sets in quickly, especially under direct sun.

Storm chances increase early in the week

Monday could bring a few morning showers or weak thunderstorms, particularly as a decaying system drifts south from North Texas. Rain coverage will be spotty at best, with just a 20% chance of precipitation in the Houston metro. Conditions will mirror Sunday, with temperatures back in the mid-90s (35°C) and humidity remaining oppressive.

Tuesday through Thursday: A more active stretch

This is when atmospheric dynamics shift, opening the door for more frequent and stronger storm activity. A weak cold front will move into Central and Southeast Texas, stalling near the region and providing a focus for thunderstorm development. Rain chances will rise to 40%–60% daily.

While this won’t bring constant rain, the setup favors periods of dry skies followed by brief downpours. Some of these storms may turn severe, with risks of damaging winds and large hail, especially in northern Harris County and toward the Hill Country edge.

Temperatures will ease slightly midweek, with highs dipping to around 90°F (32°C) on Wednesday and Thursday, as clouds and rain begin to moderate the heat.

Potential rainfall outlook

According to projections from the National Blend of Models, parts of Southeast Texas, including Houston, could receive significant rainfall by week’s end. While totals will vary widely depending on storm track and timing, this may help chip away at the growing rainfall deficit that’s developed during the start of meteorological summer.