Twin Cities, Minnesota — The latest forecast signals a notable shift in the heavy rainfall potential for Thursday and Friday, now pushing toward the greater Twin Cities area, as updated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Beautiful Tuesday in Minnesota, but with wildfire smoke
We’re enjoying a mildly smoky but sunny summer day this Tuesday, with temperatures reaching the low to mid-80s °F (around 27–29 °C) across central and southern Minnesota. The air quality remains in the good to moderate range statewide, although a smudge of thicker smoke from North Dakota is forecast to filter into Minnesota by Wednesday.
According to the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, the smoke plume is expected to move southeastward through Wednesday evening, potentially increasing ground-level haze, especially across northern Minnesota.
Warm front stalling over Minnesota by midweek
A warm front will stall across central and southern Minnesota from Thursday through Friday, setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms. While light rain showers may begin as early as Wednesday afternoon, more intense rainfall is likely by Thursday evening into Friday morning.
Between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Thursday, the HRRR model depicts patchy light precipitation, but heavier and more organized rainfall systems are expected to follow.
Heavy rainfall targets Twin Cities Thursday and Friday
Forecast models have shifted the zone of heaviest rainfall northward, now encompassing much of the Twin Cities metro area. The ECMWF model projects a broad swath of rainfall across central and southern Minnesota, with accumulations ranging from 2 to 5 inches (about 50 to 125 mm) by Friday afternoon.
Rainfall totals may vary locally depending on storm cell development, but widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated. This could bring periods of heavy rain, possibly enough to drench farmlands, gardens, and lawns without needing artificial watering.
Keep an eye on air quality and updated rainfall trends
Although air quality forecasts continue to suggest moderate levels for the rest of the week, the smoke intrusions from North Dakota may temporarily reduce visibility and affect respiratory conditions, especially for sensitive groups.
As the rainfall patterns evolve, expect updated guidance from the NOAA and local meteorological agencies to better define the risk zones. This weather setup could change rapidly, particularly due to the presence of a stationary front and incoming moisture from the south.
