Scattered storms hit Sioux Falls and beyond
Monday, June 16, has brought another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms across KELOLAND, affecting places like Huron, which picked up over 1 inch of rain, and Pierre and Watertown, where totals were closer to 0.25 inches.
Storms along and east of I-29 are tapering off as the evening progresses. These systems are expected to move out, though some heavier downpours remain possible. Most of these storms are not expected to reach severe levels, but conditions remain unstable.
Evening convection brewing in eastern Montana and Wyoming
The current calm won’t last. New storms are forming across eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming, with activity tracking toward the Dakotas. Systems north of I-90 will likely persist overnight, while those to the south of I-90 are expected to diminish.
Northwestern KELOLAND is under an enhanced risk for severe weather, with the rest of West River in a slight risk. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely to be issued soon in these areas. The primary threats include large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially as these storms cross into the East River region after dark.
Warm and muggy night ahead
Tonight will remain mild and sticky, with lows in the 60s °F (16–21 °C). Winds from the south will stay light to moderate, though gusts could increase within active storms.
More instability Tuesday with severe threat building
Tuesday will bring higher humidity levels across southeastern KELOLAND, as temperatures climb. The warmest highs are expected in this region, flirting with the upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–34 °C). A weak cold front is forecast to slide through the region, switching winds to the north and potentially setting the stage for more afternoon thunderstorms.
Atmospheric conditions will remain unstable, increasing the chance for convection to ignite along the front.
Tuesday afternoon: severe risk in eastern South Dakota and Minnesota
A new enhanced risk is in place for parts of southwest Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota on Tuesday. A developing line of thunderstorms is expected to push through southwestern Minnesota in the late afternoon and evening, gradually tracking southeast.
The most significant threats include large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Looking ahead: cooler Tuesday, then a major warm-up
By Tuesday, temperatures will settle in the 70s °F (21–26 °C) before soaring again toward the end of the week. Forecast models are showing widespread 90s °F (32–37 °C) across KELOLAND as the weekend approaches, suggesting oppressive heat could be returning soon.
