Severe weather is approaching the region of northwest Lower Michigan this evening, with isolated tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and potential hail in the forecast—especially for the Traverse City area and surrounding communities such as Frankfort, Manistee, Charlevoix, and Petoskey.
What to expect across northern Michigan this evening
A line of thunderstorms is forecast to drift slowly southeastward from the Upper Peninsula starting later today, reaching northwest Lower Michigan during the second half of the evening, likely after 8 p.m. and before midnight.
The southern two-thirds of Lower Michigan will stay thunderstorm-free, as temperatures aloft remain too hot to allow storms to develop. However, dangerously hot and humid conditions will persist through the day—highs reaching well into the 90s°F (mid-30s°C)—making it important to stay cautious in the heat.
Radar forecast and timing
From 4 p.m. today to 8 a.m. Tuesday, June 24, the radar models show thunderstorms weakening after 10 p.m., as the upper-air support fades. This suggests that while instability from the day’s heat and humidity may trigger scattered severe activity, the system won’t be widespread or particularly fast-moving.
Expect hit-or-miss pockets of severe storms, not a continuous squall line.
Storm threats: Tornadoes, wind, hail
Tornado risk remains low, but not zero. A 2% chance of a tornado exists within 25 miles of any given point in the Traverse City region and nearby areas. These would be brief, isolated tornadoes tied to the most intense cells in the line.
Damaging wind gusts pose a more realistic concern, though they too will be scattered in nature. Winds strong enough to bring down branches or disrupt power may occur in areas like Houghton Lake, Alpena, and Pentwater, extending into the Upper Peninsula.
Large hail is unlikely, given the high temperatures in the upper atmosphere, which make it hard for ice cores to form and survive the fall. Still, there’s about a 5% chance of smaller hail in stronger storms—enough to warrant attention if you’re protecting vehicles or property.
Monitoring the storm’s arrival
The most critical time window to track radar activity will be between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. This will provide the best early insight into storm strength, coverage, and whether conditions are evolving toward more organized severe weather across northwest Lower Michigan.
Keep watching the skies and monitoring local weather updates throughout the evening.
