Phoenix, as of today, Wednesday, June 25, is facing revised monsoon expectations that are less hopeful than they were just a few weeks ago. The Climate Prediction Center, in its latest forecast update for July through September, has now placed Arizona in the “equal chances” category—meaning the odds of a wetter-than-average monsoon are no better or worse than normal.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had forecasted a 40% chance of above-normal rainfall and a 27% chance of below-normal precipitation for large parts of Arizona. But that early optimism has been dialed back. The updated precipitation outlook now gives equal probability to all three possible outcomes: above, normal, or below-normal rainfall.
A shift in projections, not a verdict
According to Alicia Ryan, meteorologist at the National Weather Service, this adjustment doesn’t signal an imminent dry season. “All this means is we have equal chances,” Ryan explained. “Equal chances of it being wetter, but also equal chances of it being normal or below.”
That nuance matters, especially in a place like Phoenix, where rainfall is historically scarce and highly variable during the monsoon period.
Looking back: monsoon totals in recent years
The last two monsoon seasons were remarkably dry:
In 2024, Phoenix recorded just 0.74 inches (18.8 mm) of rainfall.
In 2023, the number was even lower: 0.15 inches (3.8 mm).
By comparison, the 2022 season was more typical, bringing 2.23 inches (56.6 mm). The long-term seasonal average stands at 2.43 inches (61.7 mm) between June and September. In this context, even a below-normal monsoon in 2025 could deliver more rainfall than the last two years combined.
Historical surprises: a wetter-than-expected 2021
Forecasts don’t always define reality. In 2021, early models had predicted below-normal rainfall, yet Phoenix experienced 4.2 inches (106.7 mm)—its wettest monsoon since 2014. The bulk of that precipitation came in July and August, suggesting that even a bleak outlook doesn’t entirely rule out the possibility of significant summer storms.
Persistent drought and unpredictable skies
Arizona remains entrenched in a multi-decade drought, and five of the last six monsoon seasons have delivered subpar rainfall. As of this writing, June has not yet brought any measurable precipitation to Phoenix, keeping spirits low and the air dry.
While odds have shifted, it’s crucial to understand that less likely doesn’t mean impossible. The atmospheric ingredients for a stormy monsoon could still align — just not as confidently as forecasters believed in May.
