LAS VEGAS, Nevada — The arrival of summer in Southern Nevada typically signals two things: intense heat and the beginning of monsoon season. But as we close out June 2025, many are asking — will this year’s monsoon truly arrive, or will it be another disappointing ‘non-soon’?
Early storms in June: A promising sign or a fluke?
The Las Vegas Valley got an early taste of monsoonal moisture during the first week of June, when powerful thunderstorms developed rapidly across the region. But according to National Weather Service (NWS) Lead Forecaster Chris Outler, that early surge was not necessarily a sign of what’s ahead. He attributes the activity to a tropical system off the Eastern Pacific, which pushed moisture into the desert southwest.
“We kind of got lucky,” said Outler. “The correlation isn’t especially strong. It doesn’t mean it’s going to stay active — but we’ll see how it goes.”
While that early May low-pressure system delivered record-breaking rain, Outler emphasized it didn’t resemble a typical monsoon setup. Nevertheless, he says the region could benefit from more rainfall given the ongoing drought conditions.
July outlook shows potential for monsoonal activity
Looking ahead, the first week of July may usher in a more traditional monsoon pattern, with precipitation probabilities between 40% and 50% above normal across the Las Vegas Valley. This shift could bring humid, storm-filled afternoons typical of the region’s summer pattern.
But beyond that initial period, the forecast becomes far more uncertain.
“The official seasonal outlook doesn’t lean one way or another,” said Outler. “It’s essentially equal chances of above-average, below-average, or normal precipitation.”
A neutral climate pattern means less predictability
Part of the forecast ambiguity stems from this year’s neutral ENSO pattern — meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are dominating global weather influences. That leaves meteorologists without a strong guiding signal.
“This year, we’re in a kind of neutral phase, so there’s no clear pattern to rely on,” Outler explained.
Last year’s ‘non-soon’ offers little insight
Many residents still remember last year’s dry summer, when Las Vegas received minimal rainfall despite early-season hopes. Interestingly, forecasters had issued a similarly noncommittal outlook at that time.
“We didn’t have a preference last year either,” Outler said. “The year before, we got a ton of rain. These things are rarely predictable — the monsoon kind of has a mind of its own.”
Flash flood risks remain year-round
Regardless of what this monsoon season brings, flooding remains a year-round hazard, especially with extreme rainfall events like those seen in May and June. According to Andrew Trelease, General Manager of the Regional Flood Control District, even isolated storms can quickly turn dangerous.
“There were people caught in the floods during those events,” said Trelease. “Floods can happen any time of the year.”
Clark County’s infrastructure is ready
Should monsoonal rains pick up in July or later, Clark County is prepared. The flood control system includes 713 miles of storm drains and flood channels, and 111 detention basins. The newest basin, under construction in the far-east Las Vegas Valley near Owens Avenue and Los Feliz Boulevard, at the base of Frenchman Mountain, is expected to be completed by November 2025.
“We’re proud of the protection we’ve built,” Trelease said. “It’s solid infrastructure that safeguards both residents and visitors.”
As the region moves into the peak of monsoon season, the message remains constant: stay clear of flood channels and detention basins, and never attempt to cross flooded roadways — as Trelease reminds us, “water always wins.”
