Barry—previously Tropical Depression Two—is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm this Sunday afternoon, June 29, over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to make landfall near central and southern Tamaulipas around 7:00 PM local time. The system will bring widespread heavy to torrential rainfall to northeastern, eastern, and southeastern Mexico, particularly affecting Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Puebla, where accumulations could reach 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm).
Strong winds and high surf along Gulf Coast
Winds of 30 to 37 mph (50 to 60 km/h) are expected across coastal Tamaulipas and Veracruz, with gusts reaching 56 mph (90 km/h). Wave heights of 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) are also forecast, especially near central and southern Tamaulipas and central-northern Veracruz, posing significant coastal hazards including rip currents and potential waterspouts.
Flossie approaching southern Mexico
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Six-E, named Flossie by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is moving northwest off the southern coast of Mexico, near Oaxaca and Guerrero. Early this morning at 3:00 AM Mexico City time, the center of Flossie was located 270 miles (435 km) south of Acapulco and 239 miles (385 km) south-southwest of Punta Maldonado, with maximum sustained winds of 28 mph (45 km/h) and gusts up to 40 mph (65 km/h).
Flossie is expected to intensify into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it tracks parallel to the Pacific coast, moving close to Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima. The closest approach to the Mexican mainland is expected on Tuesday, near Jalisco.
Heavy rain in south and Pacific coast
Flossie’s outer rainbands and associated tropical moisture will generate torrential downpours over Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Michoacán, with localized rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches (75 to 150 mm). These conditions are likely to cause flash flooding, landslides, and river swelling in vulnerable areas. Wave heights of 8 to 11 feet (2.5 to 3.5 meters) are anticipated along Oaxaca and Guerrero, where tropical storm warnings are now in effect from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo.
Torrential rain across interior Mexico
In addition to Barry and Flossie, a broad low-pressure trough and upper-level cyclone across northeastern Mexico are working in tandem with moisture inflow to produce widespread thunderstorms across the north, center, and west of the country. Intense rainfall is forecast in the State of Mexico (southwest), Morelos, and Chiapas (west and south), raising concerns about flash floods, mudslides, and urban flooding.
Rainfall forecast for Sunday, June 29, 2025
Torrential rain (6 to 10 inches / 150 to 250 mm):
Tamaulipas (central and southern), Puebla (north and east), Veracruz (central and north)
Intense rain (3 to 6 inches / 75 to 150 mm):
San Luis Potosí (east), Hidalgo (east), Tabasco, Chiapas (west and south), Michoacán, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Morelos, State of Mexico (southwest)
Very heavy rain (2 to 3 inches / 50 to 75 mm):
Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Querétaro, Tlaxcala
Scattered storms (1 to 2 inches / 25 to 50 mm):
Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Mexico City
Moderate showers (0.2 to 1 inch / 5 to 25 mm):
Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo
Light showers (trace to 0.2 inch / 0.1 to 5 mm):
Baja California Sur, Aguascalientes
Severe wind and marine conditions
Wind gusts of 44 to 56 mph (70 to 90 km/h):
Tamaulipas (central and south), Veracruz (central and north)
Wind gusts of 37 to 50 mph (60 to 80 km/h):
Oaxaca, Guerrero
General wind of 12 to 18 mph (20 to 30 km/h) with gusts of 25 to 37 mph (40 to 60 km/h):
Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Tabasco (coast), Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo
Wave heights of 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) and possible waterspouts:
Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero
Regional forecasts: June 29, 2025
Mexico Valley:
Cloudy skies with cool morning temperatures, fog in higher terrain, and afternoon thunderstorms in Mexico City and southwest State of Mexico, possibly leading to localized flooding and landslides. Highs in Mexico City will reach 70 to 73°F (21 to 23°C), and in Toluca between 66 and 70°F (19 to 21°C). Wind gusts up to 25 mph (40 km/h) possible in storm zones.
Baja California Peninsula:
Clear skies in Baja California, partly cloudy in Baja California Sur. Morning fog along the Pacific coast. Extreme heat in the northeast, with highs above 113°F (45°C). Winds up to 37 mph (60 km/h) may produce dust storms.
North Pacific:
Cloudy skies with heavy rain in Sinaloa, scattered storms in Sonora, possible hail and flash flooding. Afternoon temperatures range from hot to extremely hot, especially in central Sonora. Winds may gust up to 37 mph (60 km/h).
Central Pacific:
Intense thunderstorms expected in Michoacán, with very strong rain in Nayarit, Jalisco, and Colima. Rain may cause flooding, landslides, and road hazards. Temperatures will be warm in the morning and hot in the afternoon.
South Pacific:
Persistent storm activity along Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, with severe flash flood risk. Morning fog in highlands, hot afternoons. Winds of up to 50 mph (80 km/h) and wave heights of 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters).
Gulf of Mexico:
Widespread torrential rain across Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Tabasco, with coastal flooding, landslides, and road closures possible. Cool and foggy mornings, warm afternoons. Gusty northeasterly winds up to 56 mph (90 km/h) with dangerous surf.
Yucatán Peninsula:
Mostly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms, warm mornings, and hot afternoons. Winds up to 37 mph (60 km/h) are possible.
Extreme heat alerts are in place for northern Mexico, especially Baja California, Sonora, and Sinaloa, where maximum temperatures will exceed 113°F (45°C). Elsewhere, highs of 95 to 104°F (35 to 40°C) are expected across Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Nayarit, and Campeche.
