SAN ANTONIO, Texas — After more than a week of rain-soaked afternoons and swollen creeks, quiet skies finally returned to Central and South Texas on Thursday. But that dry stretch may not last long. A new round of weekend storms is expected to develop across the region, bringing isolated downpours and a renewed flood risk, especially in parts of the Hill Country.
Here’s how the weather is shaping up heading into the weekend.
Friday stays mostly dry, with only spotty storms possible
Friday morning started off calm across San Antonio, with mild temperatures in the mid-70s°F (24°C) and partly cloudy skies. Conditions were slightly cooler in the Hill Country, where towns like Kerrville and Fredericksburg woke up to lows around 70°F (21°C).
By the afternoon, expect temperatures to climb quickly, reaching the low 90s°F (33–34°C) in San Antonio, right in line with what’s typical for mid-July. For the 52nd day in a row, the city is expected to avoid hitting the triple-digit mark, a streak that’s becoming more notable as summer wears on.
While most areas will stay dry, there’s a slight chance—around 10%—for a few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms to pop up during the late afternoon and early evening. These will be hit-or-miss, and any rainfall is likely to be short-lived.
Saturday brings better chances for rain and thunder
As high pressure begins to ease, the door opens for more widespread thunderstorm activity across the region on Saturday. Rain chances rise to about 30% for much of the Hill Country, including towns like Comfort, Marble Falls, Fredericksburg, and Kerrville. Along the I-35 corridor, including Austin and San Antonio, storm chances are slightly lower, closer to 20%.
The best window for rainfall appears to be from mid-afternoon through the evening, roughly 2 p.m. to 8 p.m.. Daytime highs will remain consistent with recent days—hovering in the lower 90s°F (33°C)—but increased humidity will drive heat index values near 100°F (38°C).
A Level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall has been issued by the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center for West Texas, the Panhandle, and parts of North Texas, where flooding concerns are more pronounced. However, areas farther south—including Boerne, New Braunfels, Austin, and San Antonio—fall under a Level 1 risk, meaning there’s at least a 5% chance of localized flooding if storms stall over the same location.
Sunday offers more of the same: scattered storms and high humidity
On Sunday, the setup remains fairly unchanged. A mix of sun and clouds will dominate the morning, followed by scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will again range from 20% to 30%, primarily in and around San Antonio and the Hill Country.
As with Saturday, any storms that do develop will be slow-moving and capable of dumping several inches of rain in a short amount of time, potentially leading to flash flooding in vulnerable areas. While not everyone will see rain, those who do could see intense bursts of rainfall and brief ponding on roads.
Looking ahead: hot and mostly dry next week
Early next week, rain chances begin to back off as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the region. On Monday and Tuesday, expect only a 10% chance of showers under partly sunny skies, with high temperatures holding steady in the mid-90s°F (35°C).
From Wednesday through Friday, temperatures are forecast to creep even higher, with highs reaching 96°F to 98°F (36–37°C). Rain chances will drop even further, likely staying below 10% each day. The dry, hot summer pattern looks set to re-establish itself across South-Central Texas by the second half of the week.
