A warm, dry transition from August to October expected statewide
July 14, 2025 — New York, NY — If you’re in Montana and hoping for an early taste of fall, you might have to wait a little longer. According to the latest three-month temperature and precipitation outlook from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, summer’s grip isn’t loosening anytime soon, especially across the Northern Rockies.
A hotter-than-normal stretch for the Northern Rockies
From August through October, much of Montana is expected to experience above-average temperatures, with parts of the state likely to face a particularly intense late-summer heat. The region around the Northern Rockies is shaping up to be one of the country’s warmest zones during this transitional period, as daytime highs regularly climb into the upper 80s and 90s °F (31–35 °C) well into September, and possibly even beyond.
This isn’t just typical August warmth sticking around — it’s a notable extension of summer heat that will keep fall weather at bay. High pressure ridging over the region is likely to suppress cold fronts and delay the arrival of consistently cooler air. While temperatures will eventually begin to cool off by late October, they’re expected to remain well above seasonal norms.
Dry weather adds to the late-season summer pattern
Alongside the heat, dry conditions are also in the forecast. Montana is projected to receive below-average precipitation over the next three months. Without significant rainfall, concerns over dry soil, increased wildfire risk, and stress on local agriculture could grow — particularly in central and eastern parts of the state.
Even though the Pacific Northwest might see slightly more moisture than average, that trend isn’t expected to stretch far enough east to bring meaningful relief to Montana. The result is a weather pattern that leans heavily on warm, dry days with little interruption, continuing the broader climate signals we’ve seen so far in 2025.
Elsewhere in the U.S., a mix of extremes
Not everywhere is under the same forecast. While Montana bakes, the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast are looking at a cooler and wetter-than-average outlook through October. That’s thanks in part to an active tropical season that could bring periodic rain and cloud cover.
Still, most of the continental U.S. is trending warm, particularly across the West, the Southwest, and the northern Plains. For Montana, this means a lingering summer — and a delayed, dry entry into fall.
