ORLANDO, Florida – A new tropical wave is being closely tracked by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as it moves westward across the central Atlantic. As of this Friday evening, July 18, 2025, the system has been assigned a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.
What we know so far
This tropical disturbance, currently located in the far eastern Atlantic, could slowly organize into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm by early next week, most likely between Monday and Tuesday, according to forecast data — including output from the FOX Model.
Meteorologists are monitoring the system carefully as it traverses warmer waters and relatively conducive conditions. However, experts from the FOX 35 Storm Team warn that the environment could shift quickly.
Atmospheric conditions and expected evolution
“Wind shear remains quite strong over the Caribbean,” said FOX 35 Senior Meteorologist Noah Bergren. “Even if this system starts organizing early next week, once it reaches the area near Puerto Rico by late next week, it will encounter very hostile conditions.”
The NHC confirms that while there’s a short window for development — mostly through Wednesday — any further strengthening will likely be disrupted by increasing upper-level winds beyond that point. This scenario makes any long-term intensification uncertain.
Current risk and location overview
At the moment, the system poses no threat to the United States, including Florida. Long-range projections suggest that even if development occurs, it would remain far out at sea and likely weaken before approaching land, if at all.
What remains unclear
Forecast models are not yet in full agreement on the intensity or trajectory of the wave. It’s uncertain whether it will achieve a named status, or how it will respond to changing wind dynamics next week. The outcome depends heavily on how fast it organizes and how it interacts with shear zones and mid-level dry air.
The broader picture for July
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season moves deeper into its active phase — which runs from June 1 through November 30 — meteorologists are keeping a vigilant eye on every potential development. While this wave is not expected to impact the U.S., its evolution offers a reminder that conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for tropical formation in the central and eastern Atlantic.
The next name on the official 2025 Atlantic hurricane list is Dexter.
