Texas is heading into Fall 2025 with a weather forecast full of contrast and surprise. After a summer that began early with triple-digit heat, yet stayed relatively mild overall thanks to above-average rainfall, the next few weeks are expected to bring a notable warm-up. According to the Climate Prediction Center, most of the Lone Star State will soon face consistent highs in the upper 90s to low 100s (around 36–38°C), coupled with below-normal precipitation.
This pattern is forecast to persist well into August, but longer-term trends suggest a shift as we move closer to the heart of fall. The August-to-October outlook still leans hot, but there’s an even split on whether rain levels will stay low or bounce back — a hopeful signal as September and October are typically wetter across many parts of Texas.
The Farmers’ Almanac, using its time-tested and mysterious formula of astronomical and mathematical indicators, paints a different picture for the fall season. Its 2025 extended forecast, called “Flirty, Flurry Fall,” suggests a “fair and dry” start with a wetter ending, particularly for the South Central region, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
This year’s autumn outlook highlights a season of contrasts across the U.S. While the North Central and interior Northeast brace for an early chill, the Southeast and Southwest, including Texas, are expected to experience milder, more stable temperatures — though not without occasional storms.
In terms of regional precipitation, the wettest zones this fall will likely be the Great Lakes, Northeast, and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, the Southwest and parts of the West Coast may face the driest conditions.
Looking ahead to Halloween, the Almanac predicts “wet, then clearing skies” between October 28 and 31 — so if you’re planning to trick-or-treat in Austin, Dallas, or San Antonio, it might be smart to keep a raincoat nearby.
When do things typically cool off in Texas? Historical data shows that most cities begin to feel real relief from the heat sometime in October, with the last 100°F (38°C) day usually landing in late August or early September, depending on the city.
For example, Austin has its average final 100-degree day around August 24, while Houston usually sees its last scorcher by August 15. In Wichita Falls, though, the heat can linger until early September, sometimes even pushing into mid-October, like in 1972, when the mercury last hit 100°F on October 17.
So, whether you’re in El Paso, Lubbock, or Tyler, keep in mind: while the heat may linger, the forecast hints at a shift — slowly but surely — as Fall 2025 unfolds.
