Storm activity expected to intensify from June to November
WASHINGTON D.C. – A notably active hurricane season is on the horizon for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting 13 to 19 named tropical storms between June and November 2025. Among them, 6 to 10 are projected to become hurricanes, with 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane status—meaning category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph (179 km/h).
Key meteorological drivers
This above-average forecast is being driven by two dominant climate variables. First, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic remain above seasonal norms, although slightly cooler than those observed in 2024, which experienced one of the most hyperactive hurricane seasons on record. These warmer waters act as high-octane fuel for developing hurricanes, enabling them to gain strength rapidly as they move westward.
Secondly, the El Niño phenomenon, which typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic, is absent this year. Instead, neutral or La Niña conditions are likely to dominate, both of which are more conducive to storm development. Despite these indicators, other important factors such as upper-atmospheric wind patterns and even Saharan dust remain unpredictable months in advance, adding a level of uncertainty to long-range forecasts.
Forecasting under fire: NOAA cutbacks raise alarms
Beyond the meteorological outlook, the capability of the United States to effectively monitor, predict, and respond to these storms may be in jeopardy. Scientists have raised serious concerns about recent staff cuts at NOAA, ordered under President Donald Trump’s second administration. These reductions include the dismissal of hundreds of researchers and critical management vacancies—particularly in vulnerable coastal regions like Texas, where Houston’s weather office is reportedly without its top three management positions.
This downsizing is creating operational stress on the National Weather Service (NWS), which is already struggling to maintain 24/7 coverage. The lack of personnel and resources is reportedly affecting even basic infrastructure and equipment maintenance.
Several meteorologists have sounded the alarm about the loss of observational capabilities, including a reduction in weather balloon launches and upper-atmospheric data collection—vital tools for hurricane trajectory forecasting.
Forecast precision at risk
Historically, hurricane forecasting has steadily improved due to better data and more advanced modeling. But as Matt Lanza, a meteorologist based in Houston, warned: “Less data means a worse forecast.”
Lanza emphasized that key atmospheric features, such as steering currents thousands of feet above sea level, require constant data collection. With NOAA’s reach shrinking, the reliability of forecasts could diminish significantly, potentially impacting early warning systems and evacuation strategies.
Global implications of domestic policy
The effects of the NOAA cutbacks may not be confined to the United States. Because of the central role the US plays in global weather forecasting, a degradation of American data infrastructure could have ripple effects worldwide.
“You need good information on the state of the atmosphere and the oceans from the whole world to make weather forecasts for any given location on Earth,” said Dr. Daniel Swain from the University of California, Los Angeles. He warned that these cuts, if left unchecked, could ultimately compromise international forecasting systems that rely heavily on US observational networks.
Still, NOAA acting administrator Laura Grimm maintains that the agency continues to employ world-class scientists and remains committed to protecting the public, even as its operational capacity is increasingly scrutinized.
