Severe storms expected Monday evening across South Central Texas
San Antonio and the broader South Central Texas region are bracing for widespread severe thunderstorms Monday evening, with an elevated threat of large hail and damaging winds. Forecast radar for 9 p.m. indicates the most intense activity sweeping through the area just as evening sets in.
Despite the promising rainfall, the severe conditions arrive amid an exceptional drought gripping the Hill Country and San Antonio. As of late May, the Alamo City has recorded only 6.11 inches of rain this year—a full 16 inches below average since August 2024.
Memorial Day outlook: Hot, humid and increasingly stormy
Morning hours between 6 a.m. and 11 a.m. may bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms drifting south from North Texas, though most of this early action is expected to remain north of San Antonio. Rain chances in the city sit around 20–30% during this time.
As the late morning gives way to afternoon, sunshine returns, and with it, temperatures soar. Expect highs to climb to about 96°F (35.5°C), with humidity pushing heat index values to a stifling 105°F (40.5°C). The combination of intense heat and high moisture makes for oppressive outdoor conditions through much of the holiday afternoon.
Evening storm threat: Hail and damaging winds possible
By late afternoon, storm risk intensifies dramatically across South Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk for areas including Fredericksburg, Kerrville, and Burnet, where storms are expected to erupt after 4 p.m.
Meanwhile, areas along the I-35 corridor, including San Antonio, New Braunfels, and Austin, are under a Level 2 slight risk. This setup carries a clear threat of very large hail, potentially over 2 inches in diameter, along with strong wind gusts.
San Antonio’s chance of storms this evening has increased to 50%, marking a notable shift from earlier forecasts. Residents are advised to prepare for possible indoor shelter as conditions could deteriorate quickly during the evening.
Tuesday continues active with more rain and storms
The stormy pattern persists into Tuesday, with continued thunderstorms and a 50% chance of rain throughout the San Antonio area. The severe risk remains, as the Storm Prediction Center keeps San Antonio within a Level 2 outlook, again pointing to large hail potential.
Rain is forecast to remain scattered through Wednesday and Thursday, with rain chances around 40% each day. A slight drop in temperatures is expected midweek, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90°F (31–32°C) and lows in the low to mid-70s (21–24°C).
Rainfall projections: Patchy but promising totals
While rainfall will be inconsistent across the region, some areas stand to see much-needed moisture. Forecast models suggest 1.5 to 2 inches of rain possible in San Antonio over the next five days, while North Texas may see totals climb to 4 inches. However, to the south, areas closer to Corpus Christi and Brownsville are expected to receive less than 1 inch.
This week offers a rare opportunity for meaningful rain amid the deepening drought, but it comes at the cost of severe weather threats that will need close attention through the week.
