Above-average temperatures forecast across California
With summer officially starting on June 20, California is gearing up for hotter-than-usual weather, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. The seasonal outlook for June through August 2025 indicates a significant likelihood of elevated temperatures across the state.
For the northern and eastern regions of California, there’s a 50% to 60% probability of above-normal temperatures, while the southern coastal areas are expected to see a 40% to 50% chance of higher-than-average heat. This means that most of California is likely to experience temperatures well above seasonal norms, which are based on averages recorded from 1991 to 2020.
Early season heat expected at the end of May
The Climate Prediction Center has already signaled above-normal temperatures for May 30 to June 5, impacting most of the state. In the Central Valley, extreme heat could materialize as early as May 29 to May 31, with a 20% to 40% probability of occurrence.
Regional impacts and heat probabilities
In Sacramento, there’s roughly a 53% likelihood of experiencing above-average heat this summer. However, heat levels will vary across different parts of the state. Residents are encouraged to consult local forecasts and interactive weather maps for more specific updates.
Drought persists as temperatures rise
As of May 23, approximately 22.7 million Californians live in drought-affected areas. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, 39.8% of the state is under drought conditions, with severity levels ranging from abnormally dry to exceptional drought.
Counties most impacted include Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Luis Obispo. Given that summer is typically dry, drought conditions are expected to persist through the end of August.
Elevated wildfire risk throughout the summer
The wildfire season, which spans from May to November, is predicted to be particularly intense this year. The National Interagency Fire Center warns of an above-normal potential for significant wildfires across both Northern and Southern California from June through August.
Climatologists, including John Abatzoglou from UC Merced, are forecasting a notable increase in wildfire activity by August, highlighting the state’s elevated vulnerability due to prolonged dryness and extreme heat.
