- Clark Fork and Blackfoot rivers already below seasonal norms
- South-central Montana holds steady while western streams decline
- Gibson Reservoir misses full mark for second year in a row
- Warm spring nights and dry April accelerate snowpack loss
- Hoot-owl closures likely as stream temperatures rise
- Multi-year drought dries out soil, shrinks river baseflows
- Vegetation health falters outside of south-central Montana
- June forecast favors heat and dryness
- Wildfire risk rising fast, with July and August looking worse
Clark Fork and Blackfoot rivers already below seasonal norms
Montana is bracing for a summer marked by intensifying drought, with rivers like the Clark Fork and Blackfoot already flowing well below average. Streamflows that would typically peak during the spring runoff are falling short, signaling a challenging season ahead for irrigators, ecosystems and fire managers.
South-central Montana holds steady while western streams decline
According to Aaron Fiaschetti from the U.S. Geological Survey, the state finds itself in a “glass-half-full” situation, but the reservoir is quickly emptying—both literally and figuratively. While rivers like the Yellowstone, Tongue and Musselshell in south-central Montana are still seeing normal or above-normal flows, many streams in western Montana, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front, are seeing historic lows. The Dearborn, Sun and Marias rivers are flowing at rates much below normal, exacerbated by insufficient snowmelt and early irrigation withdrawals.
Gibson Reservoir misses full mark for second year in a row
Clayton Jordan from the Bureau of Reclamation confirmed that the Gibson Reservoir, west of Augusta, failed to fill again this year. It peaked at about 20 feet below capacity, something that hasn’t happened in consecutive years since the 1940s. This shortfall has resulted in major irrigation cutbacks, with water allotments for Greenfields and Fort Shaw irrigation districts slashed to around 50% of typical levels.
Warm spring nights and dry April accelerate snowpack loss
Following a decent snowpack buildup in February, unseasonably warm nights in March and a record-dry April, especially in Helena, quickly melted the snow reserves. By May, weather patterns turned erratic. Temperatures in Missoula soared to 94°F (34°C) on May 31, beating the previous record from 1986 by 2°F. Kalispell and Butte also reported monthly averages over 2°F (1°C) above normal.
This heat led to early runoff peaks—or in some cases, no peak at all, such as on Prickly Pear Creek near Helena. The early loss of snowpack means there’s little reserve left to feed streams through July and August.
Hoot-owl closures likely as stream temperatures rise
With stream temperatures already creeping upward in Regions 2 and 4—around Missoula and the Front—Fish, Wildlife & Parks managers are preparing for early hoot-owl closures. These restrict fishing during the hottest parts of the day to protect fish, particularly trout, from additional stress.
Multi-year drought dries out soil, shrinks river baseflows
Beyond snowpack, long-term drought is depleting groundwater, reducing the baseflows that typically sustain rivers in dry months. Soil moisture is alarmingly low in places like Phillips, Liberty and Dawson counties. Farmers in Liberty County may abandon their winter wheat, while others in Dawson County say their alfalfa never even sprouted.
Currently, about 20% of Montana has experienced drought conditions for five consecutive years. Troy Blandford, of the Montana State Library, warns that these cumulative deficits—often 3 to 4 inches annually—are starting to compound with serious consequences for water supplies and vegetation.
Vegetation health falters outside of south-central Montana
Only south-central and southeastern Montana have maintained healthy snowpack and moisture since last October. Remote sensing data shows healthy vegetation in these areas, but elsewhere—especially along the Rocky Mountain Front and near Peck Reservoir—plants are visibly stressed.
June forecast favors heat and dryness
June, typically the wettest month for Montana, isn’t expected to offer much relief. The National Weather Service predicts above-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation through the month, a troubling signal for farmers, water managers and firefighters alike.
Wildfire risk rising fast, with July and August looking worse
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, over half of Montana—excluding the southeast and far eastern areas—will face above-normal wildfire potential by July. This risk is forecast to expand in August, sparing only a pocket near Yellowstone National Park.
The combination of multi-year drought, record heat, early snowmelt, and dry soils is shaping up to make Summer 2025 one of the most challenging fire seasons Montana has faced in recent memory.
