🌧️ Monday under the grip of a cool upper-level low
Minnesota is starting the new week under the influence of a persistent upper-level low, keeping skies overcast across much of the state. Lingering showers are expected throughout the day, especially in central and northeastern regions, accompanied by below-average temperatures. Afternoon highs will remain in the mid-60s°F (around 18°C), with a damp, gray feeling in the air. Localized drizzle and occasional light rain bands will continue to rotate through until early evening.
🌤️ Tuesday: sun returns with warm southern breezes
By Tuesday, conditions will shift dramatically. Clear skies will return across most of Minnesota, ushered in by southerly winds and rising temperatures. Expect a notable rebound with highs climbing into the low 80s°F (27°C) in the Twin Cities and southern counties. The sunshine will bring temporary relief ahead of a more volatile pattern setting up midweek.
⛈️ Wednesday to Friday: thunderstorm threats and heavy rain
The weather pattern turns more dynamic and unstable beginning late Wednesday, as multiple waves of energy ride along a developing frontal boundary. The main impacts are forecast from Wednesday night through Friday, with two or more rounds of thunderstorms moving across southern and central Minnesota. These storms are expected to bring:
- Locally heavy rainfall, possibly exceeding 1–2 inches (25–50 mm) in some areas.
- Thunderstorms, potentially strong, especially closer to the Iowa border.
- A risk for isolated severe weather, including gusty winds and small hail, primarily confined to southern Minnesota.
The metro area, including Minneapolis and St. Paul, may see some hefty downpours, but current models suggest that the greatest storm intensity will stay to the south.
🌤️ More tranquil conditions into the weekend
Looking ahead to the weekend, a more stable atmosphere is expected to return. Saturday and Sunday currently appear dry, with seasonal highs in the upper 70s°F (around 25°C) and a mix of sun and clouds. Any lingering moisture will likely stay well south or east of Minnesota by then.
⚠️ Climate context
While individual weather events like this stormy midweek stretch can’t be solely blamed on climate change, the growing frequency of intense rainfall, fluctuating extremes, and record heat across Minnesota and the globe fit the pattern of a rapidly warming climate. This increase in moisture-rich storm systems is a well-documented consequence of a warmer atmosphere.
