⛈️ Active pattern returns to Minnesota starting Wednesday
A new wave of stormy, wet weather is set to arrive in Minnesota beginning Wednesday, June 11, and it will continue through Friday, June 13, according to meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. Today, Wednesday morning, skies are still sunny, but that won’t last long as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable.
A stalled warm front near the Minnesota–Iowa border will become the focal point for significant thunderstorm activity starting late today and into Thursday.
Thursday into Friday: Heavy rain threat increases
By late Thursday, models suggest a large thunderstorm system will develop and sweep across southern Minnesota, bringing the risk of very heavy rainfall, especially in counties along and south of Interstate 90.
Rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches (76 mm) in localized areas, with the potential for flash flooding in low-lying zones and urban centers like Rochester, Albert Lea, and Mankato. Overnight into Friday morning, widespread lightning, torrential rain, and gusty winds are expected to accompany the storms.
Weekend outlook: Temporary calm before next system
The active pattern will temporarily ease over the weekend, with Saturday and Sunday expected to be dry and mild across most of the state, including the Twin Cities, Duluth, and Brainerd regions. However, the reprieve will be brief.
By early next week, long-range models hint at another round of precipitation, possibly bringing severe storms back to parts of central and southern Minnesota.
Climate context: Extreme events growing more common
Although individual weather events can’t be directly attributed to climate change, the increase in frequency and severity of storms and rainfall extremes like this one fits into a broader pattern linked to global warming. Minnesota, like much of the Upper Midwest, is experiencing a notable uptick in intense precipitation events.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that without a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the planet could surpass 1.5°C of warming within the next five years, increasing the risk of more unlivable conditions even in regions like the Midwest.
Stay tuned for continued updates on the evolving Minnesota weather pattern as we move deeper into the month of June.
