Atlantic hurricane season 2025: a dangerous start
The 2025 hurricane season has officially begun in the Atlantic Ocean, and it’s already raising serious concerns along the South Carolina coastline, particularly across the Grand Strand and Myrtle Beach. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a 60% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms, of which up to five could become major hurricanes—that is, category 3 or higher with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 km/h).
This elevated forecast is due largely to record-breaking sea surface temperatures, which are acting as fuel for more frequent and powerful tropical systems, said Tim Armstrong, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wilmington. He notes that the Atlantic’s warmth this year is exceptionally high, contributing directly to the increased storm risk.
Myrtle Beach and the Grand Strand face a high risk of impact
Even when hurricanes do not make direct landfall, Myrtle Beach and surrounding communities often experience intense rainbands, tornadoes, and coastal flooding. For instance, in 2024, both Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Helene battered the Grand Strand, unleashing powerful winds, heavy rainfall, and significant flooding across Cherry Grove and Conway. In some areas, Debby dumped more than 20 inches (508 mm) of rain in just a few days over the Waccamaw River Basin.
Storms passing nearby, such as Helene, which tracked hundreds of miles west, still delivered bands of torrential rain and severe weather, including tornadoes, to the South Carolina coast.
Climate trends worsening local impacts
Meteorologists emphasize a troubling trend: storms are growing wetter, with rainfall rates increasing over the past few decades. According to Armstrong, this is likely linked to climate change, as a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall events during hurricanes.
This is especially dangerous for the Myrtle Beach region, where low-lying areas around Conway and inland communities are highly flood-prone. Over the last ten years, the Waccamaw River has repeatedly overflowed due to hurricane-related deluges, creating serious infrastructure problems and residential damage.
Comparison with past hurricane seasons
The 2025 forecast is in line with the active period that began in the late 1990s, during which the Atlantic Basin has consistently produced above-average storm activity. For reference, 2024 produced 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes—well above the historical norm of 14 tropical storms and 7 hurricanes per season.
The most active season ever recorded occurred in 2020, with a staggering 30 named storms, underscoring the current trend toward more volatile and damaging hurricane seasons.
High vulnerability across Horry and Georgetown counties
The South Carolina Emergency Management Division (SCEMD) classifies coastal Horry and Georgetown counties into Evacuation Zones A, B, and C—designations used to initiate evacuation protocols. Knowing your zone and elevation level is crucial as hurricane season progresses. Despite how early it is, officials strongly stress that now is the time to be ready, particularly for potential threats emerging in August and September, historically the most active months.
Preparation means readiness for unpredictable paths
Experts like Armstrong stress that even peripheral hurricane impacts—those storms that do not directly strike the coast—can still bring significant danger. A storm center traveling hundreds of miles inland can still drag destructive weather bands toward the coast.
In this type of volatile and high-impact forecast, Myrtle Beach, North Myrtle Beach, and surrounding areas must prepare for a very active and potentially hazardous season.
NOAA and SCEMD recommend that residents establish multiple ways to receive emergency alerts, understand evacuation routes, and plan family meeting locations in advance. The CodeRED alert system and the SC Emergency Manager app offer critical updates and personalized notifications for those living in South Carolina’s most exposed zones.
The Atlantic is warming—and so is the threat
Every added degree in ocean temperature and air humidity amplifies the power and destructiveness of storms. As 2025 unfolds, the outlook for South Carolina’s coast—especially the Myrtle Beach area—is one of vigilance, early awareness, and an ongoing confrontation with the realities of a changing climate and its effects on extreme weather.
