Severe risk for most of Minnesota this Monday
Monday, June 16, begins with heavy humidity across Minnesota, as temperatures climb into the mid-80s °F (around 29 °C) and dewpoints hover near 70 °F (21 °C). These conditions are setting the stage for severe thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening.
The National Weather Service has placed a large portion of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, under an enhanced risk for severe weather, with potential for damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.
Timing and uncertainty: All eyes on Monday morning trends
The precise timing and intensity of today’s storms depend heavily on how the morning weather develops. According to the latest forecast discussion, if showers or storms develop and linger through the morning, the atmosphere may not have time to destabilize fully, which could reduce the risk level in the afternoon.
However, most weather models currently indicate that any early precipitation should fade by midday, allowing for the formation of intense thunderstorms by the early evening, especially across western Minnesota, then progressing eastward toward Minneapolis–St. Paul.
Storm type and threats: Supercells could form
The environment over Minnesota today is described as very unstable, creating favorable conditions for supercell thunderstorms. If these develop, they could bring multiple hazards, including:
- Very large hailstones
- Strong and damaging wind gusts
- The possibility of tornadoes
The initial storms are most likely to form in western parts of the state, then spread eastward as the evening progresses.
Atmospheric ingredients: Heat, moisture and instability
The key meteorological factors contributing to today’s setup include high surface temperatures, elevated dewpoints, and a volatile air mass. These ingredients may trigger explosive thunderstorm development if they are not suppressed by early-day cloud cover or lingering showers.
Weather alerts will likely be updated throughout the day, and conditions may change rapidly during the late afternoon hours.
