Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into the first major hurricane of the 2025 season as it closes in on the southern coast of Mexico, threatening the region with flooding rains, damaging winds, and a life-threatening storm surge. As of Thursday morning, Erick has reached Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (210 km/h).
Erick becomes the strongest storm of 2025 in the Pacific
Following the short-lived Tropical Storm Dalila, Erick formed early Tuesday in the eastern Pacific, quickly escalating from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane in less than 24 hours. By noon Tuesday, wind speeds had jumped from 50 mph (80 km/h) to 100 mph (160 km/h), easily qualifying as rapid intensification—a rise of at least 35 mph (56 km/h) in a single day.
According to AccuWeather meteorologists, the storm has continued strengthening as expected, making Erick not only the second hurricane but also the earliest fifth-named storm in the eastern Pacific since July 9, 1956. The average date for a fifth-named storm in this basin is July 23, showing just how active this season has already become.
Mexico braces for major impacts near Acapulco
Hurricane Erick is currently tracking dangerously close to Acapulco, and its outer bands are already affecting large parts of southwestern Mexico. According to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, the region should expect “powerful wind gusts, power outages, torrential rainfall, flash flooding, and storm surge inundation.”
While the storm’s center may pass slightly southeast of Acapulco, significant impacts are likely along a wide stretch of the southern Mexican coast. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale currently rates Erick as a Level 3 hurricane, although this could increase depending on its exact track and continued strengthening.
Flash flooding and mudslides threaten inland communities
As Erick pushes inland, moisture-rich bands will dump 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm) of rain over coastal and mountainous areas of southern and southwestern Mexico, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches (500 mm) in isolated areas. This volume of rainfall over rugged terrain creates a serious risk of mudslides, especially in rural and elevated areas.
Gusty winds have already been reported far from the center, as the storm pushes warm, moisture-laden air onshore. Coastal regions can expect large ocean swells, high surf, beach erosion, and dangerous rip currents. Near landfall, a storm surge of 6 to 10 feet (1.8 to 3 meters) is forecast, particularly east of the storm’s eye.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season far ahead of average
With five named tropical storms and now two hurricanes already recorded, the 2025 eastern Pacific season is running well ahead of schedule. The first hurricane typically forms around June 26, and the second hurricane usually doesn’t appear until mid-July. The previous storm, Barbara, briefly became a Category 1 hurricane on June 8 with sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h)—a figure now dwarfed by Erick’s intensity.
Forecasts suggest that 14 to 18 tropical storms could form in this basin during the season, with seven to ten potentially becoming hurricanes. Of those, three to six may impact Mexico and Central America directly.
More tropical activity possible later in June
Meteorologists are watching for yet another tropical rainstorm to form off the coast of Central America between June 24 and 27. At the same time, a weaker tropical environment continues in the Atlantic basin, hindered by dry air, Saharan dust, and high wind shear—conditions typical for early summer.
Still, some eyes remain on the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean, where localized thunderstorms and brief tropical developments remain possible. Additionally, late-month monitoring will focus on waters just off the Carolinas, Georgia, and northeastern Florida, where a complex of thunderstorms descending from the Northeast may consolidate into a tropical disturbance over the warm Gulf Stream.
