Heavy rain forecast in 29 states through Sunday, June 22
A significant weather system is setting up over a large portion of Mexico this Sunday, driven by several atmospheric phenomena. A combination of low-pressure channels over the Mesa del Norte, Mesa Central, and the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, along with humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, will bring intense rainfall to Tabasco, Veracruz, San Luis Potosí, and Tamaulipas. At the same time, very heavy showers are expected in Hidalgo, Estado de México, Querétaro, Aguascalientes, and Zacatecas, while strong downpours will affect Tlaxcala, Morelos, Ciudad de México, Guanajuato, Nuevo León, and Coahuila.
The moist flow from the Pacific Ocean, interacting with atmospheric instability over the western states, will favor intense precipitation in Oaxaca and Chiapas, and very heavy rain in Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco. Meanwhile, the Mexican monsoon active over the northwest will trigger intense storms in Chihuahua and Durango, very heavy precipitation in Nayarit, and strong storms in Sinaloa, with scattered showers expected in Sonora.
A separate tropical wave — wave number 5 — moving into the Yucatán Peninsula will bring very heavy rainfall to Quintana Roo and Yucatán, along with strong storms in Campeche.
At the same time, hot and very hot conditions will persist over the northwest, north, northeast, west, and Yucatán Peninsula, with temperatures exceeding 104 °F (40 °C) in the northeast of Baja California, east and southeast Sonora, northeast Chihuahua, and northern Sinaloa.
Forecast for rainfall on Sunday, June 22, 2025
Very heavy to intense rain (3 to 6 in / 75 to 150 mm):
Chihuahua, Durango, San Luis Potosí, Puebla, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Oaxaca, and Chiapas.
Heavy to very heavy rain (2 to 3 in / 50 to 75 mm):
Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Estado de México, Guerrero, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo.
Showers with strong downpours (1 to 2 in / 25 to 50 mm):
Sinaloa, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Guanajuato, Morelos, Tlaxcala, Ciudad de México, and Campeche.
Scattered showers (0.2 to 1 in / 5 to 25 mm):
Sonora.
These strong to intense rains could cause rising rivers and streams, landslides, urban flooding, and significant pooling of water.
High temperatures forecast for Sunday, June 22, 2025
Extreme heat of 104 to 113 °F (40 to 45 °C):
Northeast Baja California, east and southeast Sonora, northern Sinaloa, northeast Chihuahua.
Very warm conditions of 95 to 104 °F (35 to 40 °C):
Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Durango, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Chiapas, Tamaulipas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo.
Warm to hot temperatures of 86 to 95 °F (30 to 35 °C):
Northern and southern Zacatecas, southern Morelos, central and southern Veracruz, and Oaxaca.
Wind and wave forecast for Sunday, June 22, 2025
Winds from 20 to 25 mph (30 to 40 km/h) with gusts up to 45 mph (70 km/h):
Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas; with dust storms possible in Sonora.
Winds from 15 to 20 mph (20 to 30 km/h) with gusts up to 40 mph (60 km/h):
Sinaloa, Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosí, Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo, with dust storms in Baja California and Baja California Sur.
Wave heights of 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters):
Western coast of Baja California.
Regional outlooks
Valley of Mexico
Expect overcast skies for most of the day. The morning will bring cool to chilly temperatures, with patches of fog and a chance of isolated showers. In the afternoon, the air will warm up to mild or slightly warm levels in Estado de México, with strong to very strong rainfall, especially in Toluca and surroundings. Ciudad de México will see showers with electrical activity, which may lead to urban flooding, landslides, and reduced visibility. Highs will reach 68 to 72 °F (20 to 22 °C) in CDMX, and 64 to 68 °F (18 to 20 °C) in Toluca, with north winds gusting up to 25 mph (40 km/h) in storm zones.
Baja California Peninsula
Partly cloudy skies with no rain expected across Baja California and Baja California Sur. The morning will be cool to cold in the mountains, with fog banks on the western coast. Afternoon temperatures will climb to warm and very hot in the northeast. Winds from the west and northwest will blow at 15 to 20 mph (20 to 30 km/h), with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h (25 to 37 mph) and possible dust storms.
North Pacific
Partly to mostly cloudy skies, with morning fog and a mild to warm start, cooler in the north and center of Sonora. Afternoon heat will intensify, particularly in Sinaloa and Sonora, with strong storms, electrical discharges, and possible hail in Sinaloa. Southwest winds will reach up to 45 mph (70 km/h) in Sonora, with gusts up to 37 mph (60 km/h) in Sinaloa.
Central Pacific
Partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Morning fog will give way to warming temperatures, especially along the coast and in Michoacán. In the afternoon, very heavy storms are forecast in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán, posing risks of flash flooding, landslides, and visibility issues. Winds from the west and southwest will increase in storm-prone areas.
Southern Pacific
Overcast skies dominate, with cool mornings turning warm to hot by midday, particularly in Guerrero, Chiapas, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Intense rainfall is expected in Oaxaca and Chiapas, with electrical activity and hail, while Guerrero sees very heavy rain. Winds will vary, with gusts up to 25 mph (40 km/h) near thunderstorms.
Gulf of Mexico
Cloudy skies with dense morning fog in Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Intense afternoon rainfall is forecast for Veracruz, Tabasco, and Tamaulipas, with electrical storms and possible hail, posing hazards of flash flooding and landslides. Southeast winds will range between 20 and 25 mph (30 to 40 km/h), peaking at 45 mph (70 km/h) in Tamaulipas.
Yucatán Peninsula
Partly to mostly cloudy skies, with morning showers and afternoon storms. Very heavy rain will affect Quintana Roo and Yucatán, while Campeche receives strong downpours. Expect hot conditions with easterly and southeasterly winds gusting up to 37 mph (60 km/h).
Mesa del Norte
Mostly cloudy with cool to mild morning temperatures. Afternoon storms will be intense in Chihuahua, Durango, and San Luis Potosí, very heavy in Zacatecas and Aguascalientes, and strong in Coahuila and Nuevo León, potentially bringing hail, rising waterways, and landslides. Winds could reach up to 45 mph (70 km/h) in the north.
Mesa Central
Overcast skies will persist, with cool to warm temperatures. Strong afternoon storms are expected, particularly in Puebla, Hidalgo, and Querétaro, and moderate to heavy rain in Tlaxcala, Morelos, and Guanajuato, with thunderstorms and hail possible in Puebla. East and northeast winds could peak at 25 mph (40 km/h) near storms.
