Texans are enduring what could be one of the hottest summers on record, and many across the Lone Star State are anxiously waiting for a seasonal cooldown. With heat dome conditions recently pushing temperatures as high as 113°F (45°C) in border cities, the hope for relief is very real — and, if the Farmers’ Almanac is to be believed, that shift may come gradually with the arrival of fall 2025.
What the Farmers’ Almanac says about fall in Texas
The Farmers’ Almanac, which has been offering long-range weather predictions since 1818, describes the upcoming season as a “Flirty, Flurry Fall.” According to their extended outlook, Texas — part of the South Central region — is expected to experience a “fair, dry start” to the season, which will gradually transition to a “wetter finish”.
Their 200-year-old forecasting method, based on astronomical and mathematical patterns, predicts that early fall will bring clearer skies and mild temperatures, with increasing precipitation as the season progresses. This pattern applies to a wide area, including Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas, and Louisiana, in addition to Texas.
While northern states may begin to feel a distinct chill as early as late October, much of the Southeast and Southwest, including Texas, will continue to feel warmer-than-average temperatures, though not without occasional storms.
When does it usually cool down in Texas?
Historically, most of Texas begins to experience a break from triple-digit heat during the month of October. On average, cities start to dip below 100°F (38°C) by late August, though the last 100-degree day can vary significantly from year to year.
In Austin, for example, the latest 100°F (38°C) day was October 13, 2024, while the average final occurrence is around August 24. Other key cities show similar trends:
In Dallas-Fort Worth, the last triple-digit day has historically ranged from July 13 to October 3, with an average of August 29.
Houston usually sees its final 100°F (38°C) day around August 15, though in 2005, it lasted as late as September 27.
San Antonio cools slightly later, with an average final scorching day of August 26.
Lubbock, located in the Texas Panhandle, tends to cool down faster, with an average last 100-degree reading around August 2.
At the other end of the state, El Paso usually ends its hottest stretch by August 11, though last year’s warmth stretched until September 27.
What about Halloween weather this year?
If you’re already dreaming of pumpkins and costumes, the Farmers’ Almanac offers a specific note for October 28–31: expect wet conditions followed by clearing skies. While this doesn’t guarantee a downpour, it might be wise to keep a raincoat or umbrella handy for Halloween night in Texas.
As the crispness of fall begins to edge out the brutal summer heat, Texans can look forward to gradual relief, with October acting as the turning point across most major cities. But until then, the sun continues to dominate the skies over the Lone Star State.
