Ciudad de México, Wednesday, July 9, 2025 – A broad and complex weather system is setting the stage for intense rainfall across large swaths of northern, northwestern, and central Mexico between Thursday, July 10, and Saturday, July 12. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) has issued an official alert regarding several overlapping phenomena expected to bring severe thunderstorms, hail, gusty winds, and localized flooding.
Strong storms expected Thursday across Sonora, Chihuahua and Sinaloa
On Thursday, July 10, heavy to very heavy downpours will dominate the weather across Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, and Jalisco, with expected rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches (50–75 mm). The tropical wave number 10, moving across the western part of the country, will be the main driver of this moisture surge, enhanced by the Mexican monsoon currently active over the northwest.
Other regions, including San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Estado de México, Puebla, Michoacán, Colima, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Veracruz, will see scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rain, measuring around 1 to 2 inches (25–50 mm).
Lighter showers are expected across Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and most of the Yucatán Peninsula, with rainfall totals under 1 inch (5–25 mm). Baja California and Baja California Sur will see only spotty light rain.
Winds will intensify Thursday afternoon, especially along the Gulf of California and in Sonora, Chihuahua, and Coahuila, where gusts could reach up to 45 mph (70 km/h). Dust storms are possible in Baja California and Baja California Sur.
Temperatures will remain high, particularly in Baja California and Sonora, where the mercury could top 113°F (45°C). Most of northern Mexico, including Chihuahua, is forecast to reach 104–113°F (40–45°C), while coastal and southern states like Michoacán, Guerrero, and Oaxaca could see highs in the mid to upper 90s°F (35–40°C).
Friday brings intense rainfall to Sonora and central highlands
On Friday, July 11, the heaviest rainfall will focus on northeastern Sonora and western Chihuahua, where localized totals could exceed 6 inches (150 mm). The interaction between the Mexican monsoon, upper-level cyclonic circulation, and tropical moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico will drive these extreme weather conditions.
Hidalgo, Estado de México, Tlaxcala, Puebla, and Veracruz will also experience very heavy rain, with daily accumulations up to 3 inches (75 mm), increasing the risk of flash floods and mudslides, particularly in mountainous terrain.
A wide band stretching from Nuevo León to Chiapas will be affected by strong showers and scattered storms, with rainfall estimates between 1 and 2 inches (25–50 mm). These storms may be accompanied by hail and frequent lightning.
Winds will remain strong in Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and along the Gulf Coast, with gusts between 40 and 45 mph (65–70 km/h).
High temperatures will persist, especially across northeastern Baja California and northern Sonora, where highs will again exceed 113°F (45°C). Southern states like Oaxaca, Campeche, and Yucatán are likely to see highs around 95–104°F (35–40°C).
Saturday: persistent thunderstorms and dangerous heat in the north
By Saturday, July 12, northeastern Sonora remains under the threat of intense rainfall, with totals again exceeding 6 inches (150 mm) in isolated areas. Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Sinaloa, Puebla, and Veracruz are also set to receive very heavy rainfall between 2 and 3 inches (50–75 mm).
A second tropical wave, number 11, moving into the Yucatán Peninsula, will bring increased storm activity to Quintana Roo, Campeche, and Yucatán, although rainfall will remain more moderate than in the northwest.
Thunderstorms with heavy downpours will blanket much of central Mexico, from Jalisco and Colima to Ciudad de México and Oaxaca, with storm totals reaching 1 to 2 inches (25–50 mm).
Baja California and Baja California Sur will continue to see minimal precipitation, though dusty conditions are possible due to wind gusts up to 45 mph (70 km/h).
Temperatures will again soar in northeastern Baja California and parts of Sonora, Baja California Sur, and Chihuahua, where highs may surpass 113°F (45°C). Much of the northeast, from Nuevo León to Yucatán, will feel sweltering heat in the mid to upper 90s°F (35–40°C).
Hydrological risks and storm hazards remain high
The forecasted rains are likely to be accompanied by frequent lightning, hail, and sudden strong winds. With the persistent storm activity, there’s a significant risk of:
Flooding in low-lying urban areas,
Landslides in mountainous regions,
Rising river and stream levels, and
Hazardous road conditions due to pooling water.
Local authorities in Sonora, Chihuahua, Veracruz, and other affected states remain on high alert for potential emergency situations.
