Florida braces for days of soaking rain, eyes on Gulf system
FLORIDA – The Sunshine State won’t be living up to its name next week. Instead of sun, much of Florida is gearing up for several days of steady rainfall, with the added possibility of tropical development as a weather system drifts toward the Gulf of Mexico.
The FOX Forecast Center is keeping close tabs on a weak, non-tropical low-pressure system that’s expected to slide off the Southeast coast, cross over northern Florida, and move into the eastern Gulf by the second half of the week. The concern is not just how much rain it will dump across the state, but what it could become once it reaches the warm Gulf waters.
Before the system even reaches the Gulf, it’s likely to bring several rounds of heavy rain to central and southern Florida, especially beginning Sunday and ramping up into Monday. Forecast models suggest that some areas south of the I-4 corridor could see 3 to 5 inches (76 to 127 mm) of rain through the week — and possibly more where thunderstorms stall. In fact, some downpours could drop as much as 1 to 3 inches per hour (25 to 76 mm/h), raising the risk of flash flooding in vulnerable spots.
Exactly where the worst flooding might occur won’t become clear until closer to the event, but meteorologists are urging residents to stay weather-aware as the pattern develops.
Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, that’s when the tropical conversation begins. While current model guidance doesn’t show a strong signal for rapid development, a few runs do suggest the system could take on some tropical characteristics by midweek, thanks to warm sea surface temperatures and enough moisture in the atmosphere to support it.
“You’ll notice a little cinnamon-bun-like swirl on some of the model charts moving across the peninsula into the Gulf,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Michael Estime. “That’s the mid-level spin we’re watching. It could — and I emphasize could — begin to show some tropical characteristics later in the week.”
Whether the disturbance strengthens or not will depend largely on how much wind shear is present in the Gulf, and how much time the system spends over water before moving on.
