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NOAA’s alert: A more active than average season ahead<\/strong><\/p>\n The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season<\/strong>, officially running from June 1 through November 30<\/strong>, is shaping up to be more active than usual<\/strong>, with NOAA<\/strong> forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms<\/strong>, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes<\/strong>, and 3 to 5<\/strong> may intensify into major hurricanes<\/strong>\u2014storms with sustained winds over 111 mph (179 km\/h)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In a season where an average year typically brings 14 named storms<\/strong>, 7 hurricanes<\/strong>, and 3 major hurricanes<\/strong>, this year\u2019s outlook signals a 60% probability<\/strong> of an above-average season<\/strong>, according to NOAA\u2019s analysis.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n ENSO-neutral phase brings uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n One of the most significant features shaping this year’s forecast is the neutral phase of the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO)<\/strong>. With neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a currently active<\/strong>, the ENSO-neutral condition<\/strong> complicates long-range forecasts. Historically, neutral years have produced seasons ranging from below-average to hyperactive<\/strong>, depending on other dynamic factors such as:<\/p>\n This neutral pattern<\/strong> has historically led to unpredictable outcomes, placing a greater emphasis on short-term monitoring<\/strong> as the season progresses.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sea temperatures in the Main Development Region signal caution<\/strong><\/p>\n Although the Atlantic waters remain warmer than the long-term average<\/strong>, there\u2019s a notable anomaly this year: the Main Development Region (MDR)<\/strong>\u2014stretching from the West Coast of Africa to the Caribbean<\/strong>\u2014is currently running around 2\u00b0F (about 1.1\u00b0C) cooler<\/strong> than this time last year. These slightly lower temperatures may inhibit cyclone formation early in the season, unless weakened trade winds<\/strong> shift the trend, which forecasters are watching closely.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Delayed tropical activity: What it could mean<\/strong><\/p>\n As of late May 2025<\/strong>, the Northern Hemisphere has not yet seen its first tropical cyclone<\/strong> of the year. This is more than a month later than climatological norms<\/strong>. A similar delay occurred in 2024<\/strong>, which contributed to inaccuracies in early predictions<\/strong> due to unexpected global atmospheric quietude<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n CSU vs. NOAA: Different forecasts, same concerns<\/strong><\/p>\n While NOAA<\/strong> provides a range-based forecast<\/strong>, Colorado State University (CSU)<\/strong> published a specific projection<\/strong> in April 2025: 17 named storms<\/strong>, 9 hurricanes<\/strong>, and 4 major hurricanes<\/strong>. This suggests a season slightly above historical averages<\/strong>, reinforcing the call for vigilant monitoring<\/strong> across the Atlantic Basin<\/strong>, including the Caribbean Sea<\/strong> and Gulf of Mexico<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Peak and potential<\/strong><\/p>\n Although hurricane season officially spans 183 days<\/strong>, historical data indicates that the peak of activity occurs around September 10<\/strong>. However, dangerous hurricanes<\/strong> have formed throughout the season\u2019s duration. As the atmosphere evolves, the current conditions\u2014neutral ENSO, variable ocean temperatures<\/strong>, and global climate anomalies<\/strong>\u2014are setting the stage for what may become a challenging and active season<\/strong> for residents and stakeholders along the Eastern Seaboard<\/strong>, Gulf Coast<\/strong>, and Caribbean territories<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NOAA’s alert: A more active than average season ahead The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, officially running from June 1 through November 30, is shaping up to be more active than usual, with NOAA forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 may intensify into […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":2841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n\n