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When the monsoon season begins in Arizona<\/strong><\/p>\n The official start<\/strong> of the Arizona monsoon season<\/strong> is June 15<\/strong>, and it runs through September 30<\/strong>. However, this date is primarily used for public awareness<\/strong>\u2014it doesn’t mean storms will begin immediately<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The monsoon<\/strong> is defined by a shift in prevailing winds<\/strong>, which begin to pull moist air<\/strong> into Arizona<\/strong> from the Gulf of California<\/strong>, the eastern Pacific Ocean<\/strong>, and occasionally the Gulf of Mexico<\/strong>. These new wind patterns, typically from the southeast<\/strong>, bring higher humidity<\/strong> and set the stage for the classic summer thunderstorms<\/strong> that characterize this season.<\/p>\n According to Michael Crimmins<\/strong>, a climatologist from the University of Arizona<\/strong>, forecasting the monsoon remains challenging. He described the climate models for 2025 as effectively \u201cshrugging<\/strong>,\u201d meaning they provide little predictive confidence. As of early June<\/strong>, the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation<\/strong> (ENSO) pattern has returned to neutral<\/strong>, offering no strong guidance<\/strong> about monsoon behavior.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n How monsoon storms develop<\/strong><\/p>\n Monsoon storms<\/strong> form when three key ingredients<\/strong> align: moisture in the atmosphere<\/strong>, rising warm air<\/strong>, and atmospheric instability<\/strong>. This process often begins with the subtropical ridge<\/strong> of high pressure moving over the Four Corners<\/strong> region, causing a reversal in wind direction and pulling in humid air<\/strong> from nearby warm oceans.<\/p>\n As dew point temperatures<\/strong> rise, clouds develop<\/strong>. If the atmosphere is unstable enough, these clouds can grow into powerful thunderstorms<\/strong>. However, even when conditions seem ideal, not all storms travel beyond the mountains<\/strong> to reach lowland areas<\/strong> like Phoenix<\/strong> or Tucson<\/strong>. Some dissipate before impacting metro regions, especially without enough mountain-driven outflow<\/strong> to help push them across the desert floor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n What to expect in Phoenix during the 2025 monsoon<\/strong><\/p>\n In 2025, Phoenix<\/strong> and surrounding low-desert areas<\/strong> are expected to receive approximately 2 inches (about 5 cm)<\/strong> of rainfall. The historical average<\/strong> for the Phoenix area between 1991 and 2020 was 2.43 inches (6.17 cm)<\/strong>. Although this is a modest total<\/strong>, it is significant for a desert city.<\/p>\n This year, the National Weather Service<\/strong> has assigned Phoenix<\/strong> a:<\/p>\n Mountain regions<\/strong>, such as those near Flagstaff<\/strong> or Show Low<\/strong>, could see up to 16 inches (40.6 cm)<\/strong> of rainfall during the season and experience 30 to 50 days<\/strong> of rain. In contrast, metro Phoenix<\/strong> typically logs around 10 days<\/strong> with measurable rain during the monsoon.<\/p>\n Other cities in Arizona<\/strong> like Tucson<\/strong>, Prescott<\/strong>, Kingman<\/strong>, and Flagstaff<\/strong> are also leaning toward above-normal monsoon rainfall<\/strong> this year, potentially offering relief after a dry winter<\/strong> and the disappointing 2024 monsoon<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Keep in mind: while the monsoon season<\/strong> may officially begin mid-June, the first thunderstorms<\/strong> may not arrive until late June or early July<\/strong>, depending on the movement of moisture<\/strong>, high-pressure systems<\/strong>, and local conditions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" When the monsoon season begins in Arizona The official start of the Arizona monsoon season is June 15, and it runs through September 30. However, this date is primarily used for public awareness\u2014it doesn’t mean storms will begin immediately. The monsoon is defined by a shift in prevailing winds, which begin to pull moist air […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":3480,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n\n