![\"\"](\"http:\/\/us.weatheramerica.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/monsoons-in-phoenix_2506.jpg\")
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Phoenix<\/strong>, as of today, Wednesday, June 25<\/strong>, is facing revised monsoon expectations<\/strong> that are less hopeful<\/em> than they were just a few weeks ago. The Climate Prediction Center<\/strong>, in its latest forecast update for July through September<\/strong>, has now placed Arizona<\/strong> in the \u201cequal chances\u201d category<\/strong>\u2014meaning the odds of a wetter-than-average monsoon<\/strong> are no better or worse than normal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In May<\/strong>, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)<\/strong> had forecasted a 40% chance<\/strong> of above-normal rainfall and a 27% chance<\/strong> of below-normal precipitation for large parts of Arizona<\/strong>. But that early optimism has been dialed back. The updated precipitation outlook<\/strong> now gives equal probability<\/strong> to all three possible outcomes: above<\/strong>, normal<\/strong>, or below-normal rainfall<\/strong>.<\/p>\n According to Alicia Ryan<\/strong>, meteorologist at the National Weather Service<\/strong>, this adjustment doesn’t signal an imminent dry season<\/strong>. \u201cAll this means is we have equal chances<\/strong>,\u201d Ryan explained. \u201cEqual chances of it being wetter, but also equal chances of it being normal or below.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n That nuance matters, especially in a place like Phoenix<\/strong>, where rainfall is historically scarce and highly variable<\/strong> during the monsoon period.<\/p>\n The last two monsoon seasons were remarkably dry<\/strong>: By comparison, the 2022 season<\/strong> was more typical, bringing 2.23 inches (56.6 mm)<\/strong>. The long-term seasonal average<\/strong> stands at 2.43 inches (61.7 mm)<\/strong> between June and September<\/strong>. In this context, even a below-normal monsoon<\/strong> in 2025 could deliver more rainfall than the last two years combined<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Forecasts don\u2019t always define reality. In 2021<\/strong>, early models had predicted below-normal rainfall<\/strong>, yet Phoenix<\/strong> experienced 4.2 inches (106.7 mm)<\/strong>\u2014its wettest monsoon since 2014<\/strong>. The bulk of that precipitation came in July and August<\/strong>, suggesting that even a bleak outlook doesn’t entirely rule out the possibility of significant summer storms<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Arizona<\/strong> remains entrenched in a multi-decade drought<\/strong>, and five of the last six monsoon seasons<\/strong> have delivered subpar rainfall<\/strong>. As of this writing, June<\/strong> has not yet brought any measurable precipitation<\/strong> to Phoenix<\/strong>, keeping spirits low and the air dry.<\/p>\n While odds<\/strong> have shifted, it’s crucial to understand that less likely<\/strong> doesn\u2019t mean impossible<\/strong>. The atmospheric ingredients for a stormy monsoon<\/strong> could still align \u2014 just not as confidently as forecasters believed in May<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Phoenix, as of today, Wednesday, June 25, is facing revised monsoon expectations that are less hopeful than they were just a few weeks ago. The Climate Prediction Center, in its latest forecast update for July through September, has now placed Arizona in the \u201cequal chances\u201d category\u2014meaning the odds of a wetter-than-average monsoon are no better […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":4849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n<\/h3>\n
A shift in projections, not a verdict<\/strong><\/h3>\n
<\/h3>\n
Looking back: monsoon totals in recent years<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\nIn 2024<\/strong>, Phoenix<\/strong> recorded just 0.74 inches (18.8 mm)<\/strong> of rainfall.
\nIn 2023<\/strong>, the number was even lower: 0.15 inches (3.8 mm)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
Historical surprises: a wetter-than-expected 2021<\/strong><\/h3>\n
<\/h3>\n
Persistent drought and unpredictable skies<\/strong><\/h3>\n