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June 28, 2025 \u2013 New York, 9:45 AM EDT<\/strong> \u2014 The National Hurricane Center (NHC)<\/strong> is tracking a disturbed weather system<\/strong> over the northwestern Caribbean Sea<\/strong>, just east of Belize<\/strong>, with a low but increasing potential<\/strong> for tropical development<\/strong> as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico<\/strong> this weekend.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n As of this morning, forecasters assign the system a 20% chance<\/strong> of forming into a tropical cyclone. The disturbance, located near the Yucat\u00e1n Peninsula<\/strong>, currently lacks a defined circulation, but meteorologists remain alert<\/strong>, as warmer waters<\/strong> and favorable upper-level winds<\/strong> could promote organization once the system crosses into the Bay of Campeche<\/strong> by Saturday evening<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Computer models<\/strong> show a gradual development trend<\/strong>, potentially consolidating into a closed low-pressure area<\/strong> by Saturday<\/strong>, with increased circulation<\/strong> and strengthening<\/strong> expected on Sunday<\/strong>. Multiple forecast tracks depict the system pushing westward<\/strong> toward central Mexico<\/strong>, but the outer bands of tropical moisture<\/strong> could easily reach the Texas Gulf Coast<\/strong>, raising the chance of scattered showers<\/strong> and thunderstorms<\/strong> beginning Monday<\/strong> or Tuesday<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Even in the absence of full cyclone formation<\/strong>, the Texas coastline<\/strong>, particularly between Corpus Christi<\/strong> and Galveston<\/strong>, may experience enhanced rain activity<\/strong>, as humid air<\/strong> is funneled northward. Any significant rainfall could lead to localized flooding<\/strong>, especially in low-lying areas<\/strong> or urban zones<\/strong> with poor drainage.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n If the system does reach tropical storm strength, it would be named Barry<\/strong>, marking the second named storm<\/strong> of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season<\/strong>. The season’s first system, Andrea<\/strong>, developed earlier this month north of Bermuda<\/strong> but remained at sea.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Early-season tropical disturbances like this one often arise in the western Caribbean<\/strong>, Gulf of Mexico<\/strong>, or off the Southeast U.S. coast<\/strong> during June<\/strong> and July<\/strong>, a pattern that continues to play out this year.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Tropical outlook maps<\/strong> issued by the NHC<\/strong> currently label the system with an “X”, reflecting its current low organization, but indicate possible intensification<\/strong> as conditions become more conducive. Rainfall forecasts<\/strong>, though still evolving, will be refined in the coming days as the system progresses into open Gulf waters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" June 28, 2025 \u2013 New York, 9:45 AM EDT \u2014 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking a disturbed weather system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, just east of Belize, with a low but increasing potential for tropical development as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. As of this morning, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n