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WILMINGTON, North Carolina<\/strong> \u2013 As we move into the heart of the Independence Day week<\/strong>, residents and visitors in Wilmington<\/strong> should keep a cautious eye on a developing tropical disturbance<\/strong> lingering over Florida<\/strong>. While the chances of direct impact are relatively low at the moment, the National Hurricane Center<\/strong> (NHC) has flagged a 40% probability<\/strong> that the low-pressure system<\/strong> may evolve into a tropical or subtropical depression<\/strong> in the next seven days.<\/p>\n As of today, Wednesday, July 3<\/strong>, meteorologists say the Fourth of July<\/strong> in Wilmington<\/strong> will likely deliver typical summer weather<\/strong>, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms<\/strong> and temperatures hovering near the upper 80s\u00b0F (around 31\u00b0C)<\/strong>. These showers will be isolated<\/strong>, not widespread, allowing for plenty of dry periods<\/strong> throughout the day.<\/p>\n The biggest issue along Cape Fear’s beaches<\/strong> might be an increased threat of rip currents<\/strong>, especially on east-facing coastlines<\/strong>. Swimmers and surfers should remain aware of ocean conditions, even if skies appear mostly sunny inland.<\/p>\n A kidney-shaped low-pressure system<\/strong> currently stretches from the Gulf of Mexico<\/strong> across northern Florida<\/strong> into the Atlantic Ocean<\/strong>. The NHC<\/strong> is closely monitoring this area, warning it could deliver heavy rainfall<\/strong>, with totals reaching up to 6 inches<\/strong>, across portions of Florida<\/strong> and coastal Georgia<\/strong>.<\/p>\n This system is expected to move slowly up the East Coast<\/strong>, but as of now, Wilmington<\/strong> lies outside the core path<\/strong> of any severe impacts. That said, weather officials stress that tropical disturbances can evolve rapidly<\/strong>, and changes in trajectory<\/strong> are always possible.<\/p>\n According to Jordan Baker<\/strong>, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Wilmington<\/strong>, the weekend looks \u201cgenerally safe<\/strong>\u201d for outdoor plans, but there\u2019s an increasing chance of more widespread storm activity<\/strong> as we enter early next week<\/strong>.<\/p>\n “The system is still broad and poorly organized<\/strong>,” said Baker. “We don’t have a well-defined center to track yet. But last year taught us that even unstructured systems<\/strong> can dump significant rainfall.”<\/p>\n That reference points to last September<\/strong>, when a non-named storm<\/strong> suddenly formed offshore and unloaded more than 20 inches of rain<\/strong> across New Hanover<\/strong> and Brunswick counties<\/strong>, causing extensive flooding, infrastructure damage, and water rescues throughout southeastern North Carolina<\/strong>.<\/p>\n So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season<\/strong> has been quiet<\/strong>, with Andrea<\/strong> and Barry<\/strong>, the first two named systems, failing to strengthen significantly or impact the U.S. mainland<\/strong>. Barry<\/strong> did bring torrential rains<\/strong> to central Mexico<\/strong>, but otherwise, activity has remained minimal.<\/p>\n This slow start, however, is not unusual<\/strong>. The season typically peaks between late August and September<\/strong>, though October hurricanes<\/strong> are not unheard of. Past examples include Hurricane Matthew (2016)<\/strong> and the infamous Hurricane Hazel (1954)<\/strong>, both of which struck North Carolina<\/strong> in October.<\/p>\n If the current system does intensify, the next name on the Atlantic hurricane list<\/strong> is Chantal<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Despite the sluggish start, all major forecasting institutions predict an active and dangerous season<\/strong> ahead. This is being fueled by exceptionally warm ocean temperatures<\/strong>, which create ideal conditions for storm formation and intensification.<\/p>\n Colorado State University<\/strong> anticipates 17 named storms<\/strong>, nine hurricanes<\/strong>, and four major hurricanes<\/strong> (Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph).<\/p>\n AccuWeather<\/strong> expects between 13 and 18 named storms<\/strong>, with seven to ten hurricanes<\/strong>, and up to five of those<\/strong> possibly reaching major hurricane status<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The NOAA<\/strong>, through its National Hurricane Center<\/strong>, also forecasts an above-average season<\/strong>, which runs from June 1 through November 30<\/strong>.<\/p>\n As July 4<\/strong> approaches, residents in Wilmington<\/strong> and across the Carolinas<\/strong> should enjoy the holiday, but stay weather-aware<\/strong> as this low-pressure system<\/strong> continues to develop along the Southeast coast<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WILMINGTON, North Carolina \u2013 As we move into the heart of the Independence Day week, residents and visitors in Wilmington should keep a cautious eye on a developing tropical disturbance lingering over Florida. While the chances of direct impact are relatively low at the moment, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has flagged a 40% probability […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5318,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n<\/h3>\n
What\u2019s the July 4 forecast for Wilmington?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Potential tropical development near Florida<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Outlook for the weekend and next week<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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How has the 2025 hurricane season started?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Season forecast: Above-average activity expected<\/strong><\/h3>\n