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Severe storms may spark Monday in western Minnesota, but lose strength near the metro<\/strong><\/p>\n MINNEAPOLIS \u2013 Monday, July 7, 2025 (New York local time)<\/strong> \u2014 A volatile weather setup<\/strong> is shaping up across Minnesota<\/strong> this Monday<\/strong>, with severe thunderstorms<\/strong> possible by afternoon in the western part of the state<\/strong>, but uncertainty remains about whether those storms will hold together<\/strong> by the time they arrive in the Twin Cities<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities<\/strong> highlights two chances<\/strong> for rain this week, the first one coming today<\/strong>, especially in the late afternoon and evening hours<\/strong>. Some storms may turn strong<\/strong>, carrying damaging wind gusts<\/strong> and hail<\/strong>. However, forecasters say that while these storms could pack a punch across the Dakotas<\/strong> and western Minnesota<\/strong>, they are expected to weaken<\/strong> as they approach the eastern part of the state<\/strong>, including the Minneapolis\u2013Saint Paul metro<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Simulated radar data from the HRRR model<\/strong> paints a clear picture: storms are forecast to initiate in western Minnesota<\/strong> by early afternoon<\/strong>, with the strongest cells arriving between 6 and 9 p.m.<\/strong> in the Twin Cities<\/strong> \u2014 likely in a decaying state<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The HRRR\u2019s updraft helicity tracks<\/strong> \u2014 a parameter used to detect rotating updrafts inside storms \u2014 also suggest the strongest storm activity<\/strong> will focus on western counties<\/strong>, where the environment is more favorable<\/strong> for severe development<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Similarly, gust swath projections<\/strong> from both the HRRR<\/strong> and the NAM 3km models<\/strong> show that strong wind gusts<\/strong> are most likely in western Minnesota<\/strong>, where storms are forecast to be more vigorous<\/strong> before weakening as they track eastward. The RRFS model<\/strong> supports this trend as well, keeping the most active weather west<\/strong> of the metro corridor.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n As of now, the Storm Prediction Center<\/strong> assigns most of Minnesota<\/strong> a Level 1 of 5 marginal risk<\/strong> on the severe weather scale. Higher risks (Levels 2 and 3)<\/strong> are focused farther southwest, across South Dakota<\/strong>, Nebraska<\/strong>, Colorado<\/strong>, and Kansas<\/strong>, where instability and wind shear<\/strong> are more supportive of organized severe weather<\/strong>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n An updated severe outlook will be issued Monday morning<\/strong>, refining the forecast as new data becomes available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Severe storms may spark Monday in western Minnesota, but lose strength near the metro MINNEAPOLIS \u2013 Monday, July 7, 2025 (New York local time) \u2014 A volatile weather setup is shaping up across Minnesota this Monday, with severe thunderstorms possible by afternoon in the western part of the state, but uncertainty remains about whether those […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":5531,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n