![\"Florida-1007\"](\"http:\/\/us.weatheramerica.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Florida-1007.jpg\")
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Fort Collins, Colorado \u2013 Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 11:16 a.m. EDT<\/strong> \u2014 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season<\/strong> outlook has been slightly downgraded<\/strong> by the Colorado State University<\/strong> team, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach<\/strong>. The new projection now calls for 16 named storms<\/strong>, a modest drop from the earlier estimate of 17, yet still slightly above the average<\/strong> of 14.4.<\/p>\n So far, the Atlantic basin<\/strong> has produced three tropical storms<\/strong>, but no hurricanes<\/strong> have formed as of today.<\/p>\n The main factor<\/strong> behind the change is the persistently high wind shear<\/strong> over the Caribbean Sea<\/strong>, both observed and forecasted<\/strong>. Wind shear<\/strong>, which is the change in wind speed and direction with altitude, is a known inhibitor of tropical cyclone formation<\/strong>. Elevated levels during June and July<\/strong> are often associated with quieter hurricane seasons<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In the team’s July forecast update<\/strong>, Dr. Klotzbach stated: This unfavorable atmospheric condition has led to a reduction in the number of expected hurricanes<\/strong>: now eight<\/strong> are forecast, down from the previous nine<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Despite the downgrading, sea surface temperatures<\/strong> in the eastern and central Atlantic<\/strong> remain slightly above average<\/strong>, though still cooler than the record-setting heat of 2024<\/strong>. In the Pacific Ocean<\/strong>, surface temperatures are currently near-normal<\/strong>, reflecting neutral ENSO conditions<\/strong>, meaning neither El Ni\u00f1o nor La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong> is dominating the pattern.<\/p>\n Historically, when neutral Pacific patterns<\/strong> coincide with warmer Atlantic waters<\/strong>, the environment becomes more favorable<\/strong> for storm formation.<\/p>\n Klotzbach\u2019s team now estimates a 48% chance<\/strong> of at least one hurricane making landfall<\/strong> somewhere along the U.S. coastline<\/strong> this season. That\u2019s a slight increase<\/strong> over the historical post\u2013July 8 average<\/strong> of 43%.<\/p>\n More specifically, the model indicates a 25% chance of hurricane landfall on the East Coast<\/strong>, and a 31% chance along the Gulf Coast<\/strong>. Both probabilities are a few points above long-term averages.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, there\u2019s a 53% probability<\/strong> of a major hurricane<\/strong> \u2014 Category 3 or higher \u2014 tracking through the Caribbean<\/strong>, compared to the 47% historical norm<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Even storms that don\u2019t reach hurricane status can still cause significant damage. Tropical Storm Chantal<\/strong>, which struck over the weekend<\/strong> in the Carolinas<\/strong>, made landfall as a low-end tropical storm<\/strong>, yet brought heavy flooding<\/strong> to central North Carolina<\/strong> and resulted in one fatality<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Dr. Klotzbach emphasized: He added: Fort Collins, Colorado \u2013 Wednesday, July 9, 2025, 11:16 a.m. EDT \u2014 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook has been slightly downgraded by the Colorado State University team, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach. The new projection now calls for 16 named storms, a modest drop from the earlier estimate of 17, yet still slightly above […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":5727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n<\/h3>\n
High Caribbean wind shear influencing lower storm forecast<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\n“High levels of Caribbean shear in June and July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.”<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/h3>\n
Ocean temperatures still warm in the Atlantic<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Probabilities of U.S. hurricane landfalls rise slightly<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Recent storm brings flood damage despite lower intensity<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\n“We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"