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PHOENIX, Arizona \u2014<\/strong> After enduring more than a week of blistering heat, many Arizonans are casting hopeful eyes toward the horizon and asking the same question: Where\u2019s the monsoon?<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Though the season officially kicked off on June 15<\/strong>, the signature sounds and sights<\/strong> of Arizona\u2019s summer rains\u2014booming thunder<\/strong>, flash downpours<\/strong>, and streaks of lightning<\/strong>\u2014have been noticeably absent across the state.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n There was a brief rain event in Phoenix earlier this month<\/strong>, but since then, a stubborn high-pressure system<\/strong> has taken hold over the region, locking in dry, oppressive air<\/strong> and blocking monsoonal moisture<\/strong> from moving in.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n On July 9<\/strong>, Phoenix hit a brutal 118\u00b0F (47.8\u00b0C)<\/strong>\u2014a record-breaking temperature that served as a reminder of just how powerful this heat dome has become. There is, however, a glimmer of hope<\/strong>. While the monsoon is off to a sluggish start, forecasters say it\u2019s slowly beginning to stir, though it\u2019s following nature\u2019s timing, not the calendar.<\/p>\n The monsoon may be on the calendar, but the atmosphere hasn\u2019t gotten the message.<\/p>\n Typically, the summer rains are triggered when high pressure shifts to the Four Corners region<\/strong>, drawing moisture from the south. But so far this season, that system has remained directly over Arizona<\/strong>, effectively cutting off the usual monsoonal flow.<\/p>\n \u201cThis high pressure aloft is going to keep a lot of the monsoon activity at bay,\u201d said Matt Salerno<\/strong>, lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Phoenix<\/strong>.<\/p>\n That same high-pressure system is also responsible for the record-setting heat<\/strong> across the region. But there’s a shift on the horizon\u2014models suggest the ridge could start sliding westward by the weekend, potentially lowering temperatures<\/strong> slightly and increasing the chance of isolated storms<\/strong>, particularly in elevated areas<\/strong>.<\/p>\n While the monsoon season officially began in mid-June<\/strong>, Phoenix<\/strong> didn\u2019t record its first measurable rainfall<\/strong> until July 2<\/strong>, when Sky Harbor International Airport<\/strong> picked up 0.16 inches (4.1 mm)<\/strong>. Areas farther west saw closer to an inch (25 mm)<\/strong>, and parts of the higher terrain measured even more.<\/p>\n That same date also lined up with the older method of defining the monsoon\u2019s start<\/strong>\u2014three straight days with average dew points above 55\u00b0F (12.8\u00b0C)<\/strong>. Phoenix reached that mark on July 2, meeting the threshold meteorologists have used for decades.<\/p>\n But a few scattered showers aren\u2019t enough to declare the monsoon fully underway.<\/p>\n \u201cWe just don\u2019t have enough moisture in Central Arizona right now,\u201d Salerno said, noting that much of Central and Southern Arizona<\/strong> remain unusually dry<\/strong> for this time of year.<\/p>\n Despite the slow start, some early indicators suggest the monsoon could still turn active in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n Michael Crimmins<\/strong>, a climatologist at the University of Arizona<\/strong>, pointed to warming sea surface temperatures<\/strong> and increasing storm development over Mexico<\/strong> as positive signs<\/strong>. Dew points have started to rise<\/strong>, and if the high-pressure system moves<\/strong>, more substantial moisture could soon follow.<\/p>\n \u201cNone of the signs point toward drier-than-average conditions over the next four to five weeks,\u201d Crimmins said.<\/p>\n According to the Climate Prediction Center<\/strong>, July rainfall is expected to be near or even above average<\/strong> in Arizona. That forecast brings a degree of cautious optimism to a state still waiting for the monsoon to truly show up\u2014and for any break from the extreme summer heat<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PHOENIX, Arizona \u2014 After enduring more than a week of blistering heat, many Arizonans are casting hopeful eyes toward the horizon and asking the same question: Where\u2019s the monsoon? Though the season officially kicked off on June 15, the signature sounds and sights of Arizona\u2019s summer rains\u2014booming thunder, flash downpours, and streaks of lightning\u2014have […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n<\/h3>\n
Monsoon delayed by high pressure<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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A technical start, but not much more<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Signs point toward a stronger finish<\/strong><\/h3>\n