{"id":5940,"date":"2025-07-13T07:06:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T11:06:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/us.weatheramerica.com\/?p=5940"},"modified":"2025-07-13T07:06:51","modified_gmt":"2025-07-13T11:06:51","slug":"weather-florida-heavy-rain-and-tropical-system-possible-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/2025\/07\/13\/weather-florida-heavy-rain-and-tropical-system-possible-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Weather Florida: heavy rain and tropical system possible this week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5941\" src=\"http:\/\/us.weatheramerica.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4.jpg\" alt=\"florida-rain-1307-4\" width=\"2121\" height=\"1414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4.jpg 2121w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-330x220.jpg 330w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-420x280.jpg 420w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-615x410.jpg 615w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-860x573.jpg 860w, https:\/\/weatheramerica.com\/us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/florida-rain-1307-4-219x146.jpg 219w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2121px) 100vw, 2121px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Florida in the crosshairs as rain and potential tropical system loom<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>FORT MYERS, Fla.<\/strong> \u2013 The <strong>Sunshine State<\/strong> is in for a stretch of very <strong>un-sunny weather<\/strong> this week as meteorologists track a developing low-pressure system that could soak parts of <strong>Florida<\/strong> with <strong>inches of rain<\/strong> and potentially grow into something <strong>tropical<\/strong> once it reaches the <strong>Gulf of Mexico<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s currently a <strong>weak non-tropical disturbance<\/strong> is expected to move off the <strong>Southeast U.S. coast<\/strong>, travel across <strong>northern Florida<\/strong>, and eventually drift into the <strong>Gulf<\/strong> later in the week. And with several days forecast over the <strong>warm waters<\/strong> of the <strong>Gulf<\/strong> and <strong>western Atlantic<\/strong>, the <strong>National Hurricane Center<\/strong> has flagged it as something worth watching.<\/p>\n<p>As of now, the <strong>NHC<\/strong> gives the system just a <strong>low chance<\/strong> of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next <strong>seven days<\/strong>, but has highlighted a wide swath of the <strong>Gulf Coast<\/strong>\u2014from <strong>New Orleans<\/strong> through <strong>Florida<\/strong> and into the <strong>Atlantic<\/strong>\u2014as an area under close observation.<\/p>\n<p>In a weekend update, forecasters wrote, <strong>\u201cEnvironmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Heavy rain, flash flooding possible across Central and South Florida<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Even if the system never earns a name, its <strong>impact will be felt<\/strong>. <strong>Central and South Florida<\/strong> are set for a <strong>multi-day soaking<\/strong>, with <strong>Monday<\/strong> likely bringing the most intense rainfall. Forecasts show <strong>3 to 5 inches<\/strong> (76 to 127 mm) or more may fall across the area, especially <strong>south of the I-4 corridor<\/strong>, and some <strong>stronger thunderstorms<\/strong> could dump <strong>1 to 3 inches per hour<\/strong> (25 to 76 mm), raising concerns for <strong>flash flooding<\/strong>, especially starting <strong>Sunday<\/strong> and continuing through the <strong>middle of the week<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>day-by-day placement<\/strong> of storms and the heaviest downpours will become clearer as the system evolves. But the message is already clear: expect a <strong>very wet<\/strong> few days ahead for much of the <strong>Florida Peninsula<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tropical development? It\u2019s possible \u2014 but far from certain<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Later in the week, attention shifts to the <strong>Gulf of Mexico<\/strong>, where the system could try to organize into something more than just a rainmaker. So far, most <strong>forecast models<\/strong> don\u2019t indicate a strong tropical cyclone forming, but some are starting to suggest a <strong>low-end system<\/strong> may develop, depending on how long it lingers over the <strong>warm Gulf waters<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FOX Weather meteorologist Michael Estime<\/strong> pointed out a <strong>\u201ccinnamon bun swirl\u201d<\/strong> on model charts \u2014 a sign of mid-level rotation \u2014 saying it could, <em>emphasis on could<\/em>, develop <strong>tropical characteristics<\/strong> by <strong>midweek<\/strong> if conditions line up just right.<\/p>\n<p>That includes factors like <strong>wind shear<\/strong>, which can tear apart developing storms, and how much <strong>energy<\/strong> the system can pull from the warm ocean surface. For now, the setup is far from ideal \u2014 but it\u2019s also not being ignored.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cThere\u2019s no credible threat at the moment,\u201d<\/strong> the <strong>FOX Forecast Center<\/strong> said. <strong>\u201cBut the pattern is worth watching \u2014 and watch it, we will.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Lightning strike injures three on St. Augustine Beach Pier<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As stormy weather ramps up across <strong>Florida<\/strong>, it\u2019s already led to dangerous conditions. On <strong>Saturday<\/strong>, a <strong>lightning strike<\/strong> hit the <strong>St. Augustine Beach Pier<\/strong>, injuring three people, according to <strong>St. Johns County Fire Rescue<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>One person was critically injured and <strong>airlifted<\/strong> to a trauma center. Another was taken to a local hospital with less serious injuries. A third person declined to be transported after being evaluated.<\/p>\n<p>The strike happened on the afternoon of <strong>July 12<\/strong>, just two days after a separate lightning incident claimed the lives of <strong>two teenagers<\/strong> on a fishing trip in <strong>Southeast Georgia<\/strong>. The <strong>St. Augustine pier<\/strong> was briefly closed following the strike but appeared to suffer only minor structural damage. Emergency officials haven\u2019t said whether the victims had attempted to seek shelter before the lightning hit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Florida in the crosshairs as rain and potential tropical system loom FORT MYERS, Fla. \u2013 The Sunshine State is in for a stretch of very un-sunny weather this week as meteorologists track a developing low-pressure system that could soak parts of Florida with inches of rain and potentially grow into something tropical once it reaches [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5941,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weather Florida: heavy rain and tropical system possible this week - 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