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Thursday, July 17, 2025 \u2013 New York Time (EDT)<\/strong><\/p>\n Tropical Storm Dexter<\/strong> may be forming in the Gulf of Mexico<\/strong>, and meteorologists<\/strong> are closely watching its evolving path<\/strong> as it moves westward from Florida<\/strong>, with Southern Louisiana<\/strong> increasingly in its sights. As of this Thursday morning<\/strong>, new forecast models<\/strong> and satellite data show a higher potential for the disturbance\u2014Invest 93L\u2014to organize<\/strong> into a named system<\/strong> in the next 24 to 48 hours<\/strong>.<\/p>\n A cluster of spaghetti models<\/strong>, shared by meteorologist Dylan Federico<\/strong> on X<\/strong> (formerly Twitter), now suggest a more consolidated westward path<\/strong> from the Florida Panhandle<\/strong>, hugging the Gulf Coast<\/strong> and reaching Louisiana by Friday<\/strong>.<\/p>\n \u201cNEW MODELS bring Invest 93L straight into Louisiana on Friday<\/strong>,\u201d Federico wrote on Wednesday night. \u201cKeep in mind if the center reforms south tonight, so will the models.<\/strong> A track further offshore would mean it\u2019s more likely this gets named Dexter<\/strong>. I still think a tropical storm is the ceiling<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The National Hurricane Center (NHC)<\/strong> confirmed early Thursday that Invest 93L<\/strong> is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms<\/strong> primarily south of its center<\/strong> as it crosses the Florida Panhandle<\/strong>. The system is expected to continue moving westward<\/strong>, with potential to reorganize over the northeastern and north-central Gulf of Mexico<\/strong> by late Thursday or early Friday<\/strong>.<\/p>\n According to the NHC<\/strong>, if Invest 93L<\/strong> remains far enough offshore<\/strong>, environmental conditions<\/strong>\u2014including warm sea-surface temperatures<\/strong>, light wind shear<\/strong>, and ample mid-level moisture<\/strong>\u2014could allow for additional development<\/strong>.<\/p>\n As of this morning\u2019s update, the probability of tropical cyclone formation<\/strong> stands at 40 percent<\/strong> for both the next 48 hours<\/strong> and the next 7 days<\/strong>.<\/p>\n \u201cA low-pressure area<\/strong> (Invest 93L) could emerge over the far northeastern & north-central Gulf<\/strong>, approaching Louisiana on Thursday<\/strong>,\u201d the NHC<\/strong> stated. \u201cRegardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding<\/strong> is the primary hazard<\/strong> from Central Florida westward<\/strong> through parts of Louisiana<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Meteorologist Chris Mulcahy<\/strong> noted on X: \u201cDexter<\/strong> seeming like more of a possibility over the next two days. Developing in the Gulf west of Florida<\/strong> and then potentially making landfall around Southern Louisiana<\/strong>. A lot can still change, but already parts of Louisiana<\/strong> have a high risk for flooding rain<\/strong>!\u201d<\/p>\n AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski<\/strong> warned on Monday that the system could become nearly stationary<\/strong> near Southeastern Louisiana<\/strong>, leading to localized downpours<\/strong> and potential flash flooding<\/strong>. Even if it fails to develop into a tropical depression<\/strong> or tropical storm<\/strong>, the moisture-rich environment<\/strong> remains a concern.<\/p>\n \u201cWe feel there is still a flooding risk<\/strong> due to heavy rainfall<\/strong>, even if this system fails to develop into a tropical cyclone,\u201d said Pydynowski<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season<\/strong> has already produced three named storms\u2014Andrea<\/strong>, Barry<\/strong>, and Chantal<\/strong>. The most recent, Chantal<\/strong>, brought intense flooding<\/strong> and damaging rain<\/strong> to parts of North Carolina<\/strong> earlier this July<\/strong>.<\/p>\n With Invest 93L<\/strong> potentially becoming Tropical Storm Dexter<\/strong>, the season is gaining momentum<\/strong> as it moves into its historically most active months<\/strong>. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season<\/strong>, which began on May 15<\/strong>, also continues through November 30<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Meteorologists across the Southeast and Gulf Coast<\/strong> will continue to monitor Dexter\u2019s potential development and trajectory<\/strong> closely throughout the next 24\u201372 hours<\/strong>, particularly as models adjust in real time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Thursday, July 17, 2025 \u2013 New York Time (EDT) Tropical Storm Dexter may be forming in the Gulf of Mexico, and meteorologists are closely watching its evolving path as it moves westward from Florida, with Southern Louisiana increasingly in its sights. As of this Thursday morning, new forecast models and satellite data show a higher […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n<\/h3>\n
Latest models show westward track along Gulf Coast<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Conditions in the Gulf remain favorable for development<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Forecasters see increasing threat of flooding in Southern Louisiana<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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Atlantic hurricane season enters mid-July active phase<\/strong><\/h3>\n