Memorial Day starts hot and humid in Southeast Texas
Memorial Day, often marked as the unofficial kickoff to summer, will feel every bit like mid-season heat in Houston. As the city wakes up Monday, temperatures will hover around 80°F (27°C), but humidity will push the feels-like temperature closer to 85°F (29°C). While Houston proper stays dry in the early morning, areas north of the city—such as Conroe, Huntsville, and Lake Livingston—may start their day under stormy skies.
If you’re heading out early toward Dallas-Fort Worth or Lufkin, expect potentially severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain. Storms could reach parts of Southeast Texas by mid-morning, especially around 9 to 10 a.m., but these will largely affect areas north of Interstate 10.
Isolated afternoon storms, with a summerlike feel
By Monday afternoon, storms should remain scattered across Southeast Texas, though Montgomery County and areas farther north may see an uptick in downpour activity. While the severe threat is low, isolated strong storms are still possible, with wind and hail being the main hazards. There’s also a non-zero chance for a brief tornado from Lufkin westward through College Station and Austin.
For central and southern Houston, including areas like Lake Jackson, the chance of rainfall sits around 20%. However, high-resolution weather models indicate that some morning storms may survive long enough to drift south and cause spotty showers between noon and 3 p.m.
Temperatures will peak in the mid-90s°F (around 35°C), with heat index values exceeding 100°F (38°C). This intense heat and humidity will reinforce that summer is here, even as storm chances remain limited until evening. Bush Intercontinental Airport’s record high for Memorial Day is 98°F (37°C), set in 2011—a figure that could be threatened depending on cloud coverage.
Evening and overnight storm risk ramps up
The weather pattern shifts Monday evening, as forecast models align on the development of a large thunderstorm complex forming northwest of Houston. This system is expected to push southeastward overnight, possibly impacting Houston and surrounding areas in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
These overnight storms could be surprisingly intense, with the potential for damaging winds and hail, despite arriving during a time not typically associated with severe weather. It’s advisable to activate mobile alerts before bed, as warnings could be issued while most residents are asleep.
Outlook beyond Memorial Day
This stormy pattern isn’t just limited to Memorial Day. According to forecast trends, every day this week brings a heightened risk of thunderstorms across Southeast Texas. Keep checking in for updated daily forecasts to track timing, storm strength, and rain totals, especially if you have commuting or travel plans.
