A lingering threat of dangerous storms continues across Texas as May closes
Thursday’s weather outlook for Central and South Texas
After a week marked by repeated rounds of heavy rain, much of Central and South Texas is catching a brief break this Thursday morning, with partly cloudy skies and pleasant early temperatures in the low 70s (around 21-23°C). However, the calm start is not expected to last, as the weather pattern remains highly dynamic.
By late morning into early afternoon, increasing sunshine will drive temperatures upward, pushing San Antonio into the mid-80s°F (around 29°C) by noon, with highs peaking in the low 90s°F (32-34°C) later in the day. Humidity will be oppressive, and heat index values could reach near 100°F (38°C).
Despite the heat, storm chances across San Antonio will remain low during the daytime, with only a 10% to 20% risk for isolated thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 7 p.m.
Severe storm development expected in West Texas
By Thursday afternoon and evening, a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop over West Texas, particularly near Midland, Abilene, and San Angelo. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded this area to a Level 3 out of 5 severe weather risk, highlighting the potential for very large hail and even isolated tornadoes.
These storms are forecast to organize into a line and move southeast overnight, heading toward the Hill Country, and eventually reaching Austin and San Antonio in the early morning hours of Friday.
Overnight impacts and Friday morning forecast
San Antonio’s best rain chances will come after 2 a.m. Friday, lasting through 8 or 9 a.m.. Rainfall is expected to become more widespread, with chances rising to 50% to 60%. Some of these early morning storms may be strong, particularly between 2 and 6 a.m., and capable of producing hail and flash flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center places San Antonio under a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather during this timeframe.
Friday weather trends and weekend preview
A weak cold front will slip into Central and South Texas on Friday morning. While temperatures won’t drop significantly, highs will back off slightly, topping out in the mid- to upper 80s°F (29-31°C). A few scattered afternoon storms remain possible, but overall rain chances will be around 20%.
By Saturday, the weather stabilizes, with morning lows near 70°F (21°C) and afternoon highs in the upper 80s°F (31°C). The chance for rainfall will be minimal, although a stray storm can’t be ruled out.
On Sunday, which marks the first day of meteorological summer, temperatures rebound, climbing into the low 90s°F (33-34°C) with continued high humidity driving heat index values near 100°F (38°C).
As we begin next week, expect a steady warming trend, with daily highs in the mid-90s°F (34-36°C) and occasional isolated showers.
Stay alert, especially overnight into early Friday, as severe weather risks persist across Texas.
