Central Minnesota is bracing for potentially significant rainfall over the next 72 hours, as multiple weather models align in forecasting totals ranging from 2 to over 6 inches of rain (from 50 mm to over 150 mm) through Saturday morning. While 6 inches isn’t guaranteed, the possibility of localized downpours and flooding is increasing, especially in a west-to-east corridor cutting through central Minnesota.
How much rain? Model-by-model breakdown
NAM 3km suggests the most aggressive outlook, pointing to a swath where training thunderstorms — storms repeatedly hitting the same area — could dump as much as 6 inches (152 mm). More broadly, this model projects a widespread 2 to 5+ inches (50–127+ mm) across a large part of the state.
HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) indicates a southern shift for the heaviest rain band, but still supports totals between 2 and 5+ inches (50–127+ mm). The high-resolution nature of this model highlights short-term intensification and the potential for very localized flooding.
European (ECMWF) model casts a wider net of rain with an emphasis on 2 to 3+ inches (50–76+ mm) in central Minnesota, overlapping with the zones highlighted by NAM and HRRR.
RRFS, a new experimental model, closely mirrors the HRRR in both timing and location of the most intense rainfall.
NBM (National Blend of Models) provides a consensus-based average, leaning on all the above forecasts to offer an unbiased projection. This model suggests broad coverage of significant rain totals from Thursday into Saturday morning.
When and where it rains the most
According to the National Weather Service in Twin Cities, scattered showers will become widespread this afternoon (Friday), with the most intense rainfall likely from this evening through early Friday. Some of the highest totals — exceeding 4 inches (102 mm) — could accumulate in a concentrated band running west to east across central Minnesota.
Even though Saturday looks relatively dry, thunderstorm chances return Sunday and continue into mid-next week, according to meteorologist Sven Sundgaard, maintaining the pattern of frequent instability and repeated rainfall threats across the state.
Stay tuned for further updates, especially if you’re in central or southern Minnesota, where rain intensity and flood potential appear to be most severe.
