Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christi, South Padre Island, and Brownsville may soon face a tropical threat. As of Friday, June 13, 2025, the GFS (Global Forecast System) and other global weather models are signaling the possible development of a tropical low in the Bay of Campeche by around Monday, June 24.
Tropical low could form in the Bay of Campeche
Forecasts show a consistent pattern: a tropical disturbance may organize in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, especially in the Bay of Campeche, around late June. While this is still more than a week away, the repetition across models suggests this isn’t just a fleeting projection. Model consensus increases the confidence in potential formation, although track, timing, and intensity remain uncertain.
Impacts for the Texas coast
If this system develops, it could bring heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and gusty winds to parts of Texas, particularly along the Gulf Coast. Based on current data, the system could evolve into a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or—if environmental conditions allow—the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.
The GFS, in particular, has been consistent with this signal for several model runs. That kind of persistence adds weight, even if no official forecast has yet confirmed storm development.
Stay informed, not alarmed
As of today, no official tropical cyclone warnings or watches are in place. Nothing is imminent, and there is no need for immediate action. This remains a developing system, and its path and intensity could shift significantly in the coming days.
Nevertheless, those in coastal Texas are urged to stay updated through official sources like the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS), especially as we move closer to the last week of June.
Forecasts to watch next week
Next week’s weather model runs will be crucial. If this system holds its projected track and gains organization, advisories could begin around or just after June 20. The Bay of Campeche is historically favorable for early-season tropical activity due to warm waters and low wind shear, especially in late June and early July.
Stay alert, especially if you’re in or near Houston, Galveston, Victoria, or the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Further updates will be issued as the system evolves and forecast confidence improves.
