Flooding concerns in central Minnesota and Twin Cities metro
A series of slow-moving storm systems is expected to bring heavy rain across central Minnesota, with the Twin Cities metro area likely among the hardest hit through Wednesday, June 18. Starting Friday morning, a combination of persistent showers and strong thunderstorms is set to move eastward across the state, creating ideal conditions for flash flooding and significant water accumulation, especially in low-lying urban zones.
Flash flooding threat begins Friday morning
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), a “very moist environment” combined with warm rainfall dynamics will contribute to high-efficiency rainfall rates. Should training thunderstorms develop — where storms repeatedly track over the same areas — rainfall totals could rapidly reach 3 to 4 inches (76 to 102 mm), with some localized spots exceeding 5 inches (127 mm).
The NWS Weather Prediction Center has issued a flash flooding alert for south-central Minnesota, emphasizing that slow-moving rain bands could drop 1 to 2 inches (25 to 51 mm) per hour in some locations. The alert warns of “isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding,” potentially severe in areas with poor drainage or where soils are already saturated.
Ongoing threat through mid-next week
The American weather model currently projects cumulative rainfall totals exceeding 5 inches (127 mm) in many areas by Wednesday, especially across central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and stretching into west-central Wisconsin. The Grand Ensemble mean supports this outlook, highlighting the possibility of repeat rainfall events over 2–3 consecutive days. Areas hit repeatedly may accumulate between 3 and 5 inches (76–127 mm) of rain.
These repeated rain episodes elevate the risk for both flash flooding and areal flooding, particularly in urban areas and along smaller creeks and streams, which may overflow as water levels rise. Flash flooding is especially likely during afternoon and evening hours, when severe thunderstorms are most probable.
Recent rainfall sets the stage
Several parts of Minnesota were already soaked on Thursday, with over 2 inches (51 mm) recorded in Ortonville and 1.2 inches (30 mm) in Brooklyn Park, part of the Twin Cities metro. With ground conditions already wet, new rainfall will accumulate more rapidly, increasing runoff and enhancing flood potential.
Stay alert for updates from the NWS Twin Cities office and prepare for a wet, stormy pattern that may persist through midweek, especially in central and southern Minnesota.
