Heavy rainfall expected across central Minnesota
Over the next 72 hours, central Minnesota is facing the potential for very heavy rain, with totals possibly reaching 6 inches (152 mm) in some locations. This surge in precipitation is expected to unfold from Thursday afternoon through early Saturday, bringing with it a heightened risk of localized flooding.
According to the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities, the most intense periods of rain are likely Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The forecast emphasizes widespread showers and thunderstorms, with the highest accumulation expected along a west-to-east corridor across central Minnesota.
Rainfall predictions by forecast model
NAM 3km model indicates the heaviest rainfall totals, with some areas potentially exceeding 6 inches (152 mm) if storms continuously pass over the same regions. The broader prediction range spans from 2 to 5+ inches (51 to 127 mm) across a wide central swath.
HRRR model positions the heaviest band slightly farther south, but similarly forecasts a 2 to 5+ inch (51 to 127 mm) rainfall corridor. This model shows a compact, intense system.
European model (ECMWF) offers a more widespread prediction, with 2 to 3+ inches (51 to 76 mm) expected over a larger area. This model also identifies central Minnesota as the high-impact zone.
RRFS, the experimental short-range model, closely mirrors the HRRR, pinpointing the same south-central axis for the most intense rainfall.
NBM (National Blend of Models), which aggregates output from all the major models, suggests a neutral, averaged forecast of 2 to 4 inches (51 to 102 mm) across much of central and southern Minnesota.
Looking beyond Saturday
While Saturday itself appears drier, Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard cautions that the storm threat isn’t over. Beginning Sunday and continuing into midweek, there will be a daily chance of thunderstorms somewhere across Minnesota.
The persistent pattern of moisture and instability makes it likely that additional rainfall events could compound already saturated ground, further increasing the flooding risk in low-lying areas, especially in the central counties.
Local impacts and flood potential
The National Weather Service is highlighting the possibility of “high-end amounts over 4 inches (102 mm)” leading to flooding, particularly in parts of Stearns, Morrison, Wright, and Sherburne counties. Rainfall totals will be highly variable, depending on where storms stall or repeat.
The forecasted rainfall, combined with already wet soil conditions, creates a volatile flood setup. This makes it critical to monitor radar trends, especially in the Thursday evening through Friday morning time frame.
Stay tuned as conditions evolve, with updated model guidance expected multiple times a day through the weekend.
