June 28, 2025 – New York, 9:45 AM EDT — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking a disturbed weather system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, just east of Belize, with a low but increasing potential for tropical development as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
As of this morning, forecasters assign the system a 20% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone. The disturbance, located near the Yucatán Peninsula, currently lacks a defined circulation, but meteorologists remain alert, as warmer waters and favorable upper-level winds could promote organization once the system crosses into the Bay of Campeche by Saturday evening.
Computer models show a gradual development trend, potentially consolidating into a closed low-pressure area by Saturday, with increased circulation and strengthening expected on Sunday. Multiple forecast tracks depict the system pushing westward toward central Mexico, but the outer bands of tropical moisture could easily reach the Texas Gulf Coast, raising the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday or Tuesday.
Even in the absence of full cyclone formation, the Texas coastline, particularly between Corpus Christi and Galveston, may experience enhanced rain activity, as humid air is funneled northward. Any significant rainfall could lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas or urban zones with poor drainage.
If the system does reach tropical storm strength, it would be named Barry, marking the second named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The season’s first system, Andrea, developed earlier this month north of Bermuda but remained at sea.
Early-season tropical disturbances like this one often arise in the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or off the Southeast U.S. coast during June and July, a pattern that continues to play out this year.
Tropical outlook maps issued by the NHC currently label the system with an “X”, reflecting its current low organization, but indicate possible intensification as conditions become more conducive. Rainfall forecasts, though still evolving, will be refined in the coming days as the system progresses into open Gulf waters.
