Already tired of the July heat in New Jersey? Relief might not come anytime soon. According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the Garden State is expected to experience above-average temperatures this fall 2025, continuing a trend that’s persisted for much of the past two decades.
While much of the Northeast, including New York, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut, may enjoy a cooler autumn, New Jersey is forecasted to remain warmer than normal. The Almanac’s seasonal map paints most of the state in red, indicating higher-than-average temperatures, with only small portions of the northeast and northwest corners expected to experience slightly cooler air.
Drier-than-normal conditions also expected across New Jersey
The warmth won’t come with much moisture. The Old Farmer’s Almanac projects a dry fall across most of the United States, and New Jersey is no exception. Precipitation levels are anticipated to stay below average, raising concerns after last year’s record-setting drought.
In fall 2024, New Jersey endured its driest autumn on record, triggering a statewide drought warning that lasted until June 2025. According to State Climatologist David Robinson, October 2024 went down as the driest month in state history, with precipitation totals falling 4 inches short of the norm.
Another warm season continues a historic trend
The 2024 fall season was not just dry — it was also abnormally warm. It marked the fourth-warmest fall in the past 130 years for New Jersey. Robinson notes that nine of the ten warmest autumns in state history have occurred since 2005, highlighting a clear warming trend.
And it wasn’t only the fall. 2024 as a whole could rank as either the warmest or second-warmest year in New Jersey’s recorded climate history, based on Robinson’s preliminary findings.
Almanac accuracy and unpredictability
Despite its longstanding reputation — the Old Farmer’s Almanac has been issuing forecasts since the George Washington era — its predictions can sometimes miss the mark. For fall 2024, the Almanac forecasted cooler and wetter weather for New Jersey, which turned out to be far from reality.
Still, the publication claims an 80% accuracy rate over time. Whether fall 2025 brings the heat and dryness it predicts, or surprises us again, remains to be seen.
