Forecasters are keeping a close watch on the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a low potential exists for tropical development next week — particularly between July 15 and 18, according to AccuWeather and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). While conditions across the Atlantic Basin remain mostly quiet for now, attention is shifting closer to home, in the same region where Tropical Storm Chantal formed earlier this month.
Low chance of tropical storm forming near Florida
Meteorologists say the odds are low, but not zero, that a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm could form early next week either just off the Southeast coast or in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
“It’s the same general area where we were watching Chantal,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather. “There’s a front sagging south that could create just enough spin for something to form, though wind shear might get in the way.”
Right now, African dust and strong upper-level winds — two classic storm killers — are still dominating much of the tropical Atlantic, making it tough for any system to really get going. Still, if something does form, it’s unlikely to become a hurricane. “It wouldn’t have enough time or favorable conditions to reach that strength,” DaSilva said. “More likely, it would be a depression or a minimal tropical storm.”
What could it mean for Florida?
If a system were to develop east of Florida, it could drift north toward the Southeast U.S. coast, guided by steering winds. If it develops on the Gulf side, it could get nudged westward, skimming the northern Gulf Coast.
Even if a defined storm center doesn’t materialize, Florida’s coastline could still see an uptick in showers, thunderstorms, and rough seas as early as next week. And if a center does form? That would likely bring heavier rain, gusty winds, and increased surf, especially along the Panhandle and Southwest coast.
Elsewhere in the tropics: four tropical waves but no imminent threats
The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring four tropical waves across the Atlantic basin, all slowly marching westward:
One is just off the African coast, while another has reached near 38W longitude, bringing scattered showers along its path. A third is passing through the eastern Caribbean, though it’s quiet for now. The fourth, moving through the southwestern Caribbean, is generating some thunderstorms between 80W and 85W.
None of these waves show signs of organized development at the moment — largely due to a widespread layer of Saharan dust drifting off Africa and continuing to suppress convection.
Next up: Tropical Storm Dexter
So far this season, we’ve seen three named storms: Andrea (June 24), Barry (June 29), and Chantal (July 5). The next name on the list is Dexter.
Climatologically, the first hurricane tends to form around August 11, and the next named storm usually shows up by August 15, so the season is still ramping up.
Florida weather today: sweltering heat, high humidity, scattered storms
Across Florida, it’s another steamy day, with highs in the low to mid-90s and heat index values soaring into the triple digits. In Southwest Florida, it could feel as hot as 107°F (41.7°C) at peak heating.
Afternoon storms will develop across much of the state, especially inland and along the Gulf coast. Some areas, particularly near Tallahassee and into South Georgia, could see stronger storms than usual.
Here’s a snapshot of today’s conditions around the state:
In Pensacola, scattered storms will bubble up by late afternoon, with highs in the low 90s.
Tallahassee will hit around 94°F, and the heat index could spike to 103°F.
In Jacksonville, storms are expected after 3 p.m., with a high near 94°F and it feeling like 101°F.
Along the East Coast, from Daytona Beach to Stuart, the risk of storms increases west of I-95, with humidity pushing the heat index to 106°F.
In West Palm Beach, Naples, and across the South, the air will feel oppressive, with heat indices between 102°F and 107°F, cooling down only once storms move through.
Between Fort Myers and Sarasota, look for storms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s near the coast to the mid-90s inland, with heat indices hovering between 100°F and 105°F.
2025 hurricane season still in early stages
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30, with peak activity typically hitting around September 10. So far, the season has been tracking close to average, but forecasters urge continued vigilance, especially as we approach the heart of the season in August and September.
The full list of 2025 storm names includes Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, and others — ending with Wendy. Whether or not your name is on the list, if you live along the Atlantic or Gulf coasts, now is the time to stay alert.
