Stormy pattern continues through the weekend in Texas
Saturday is shaping up to be a very active weather day across Texas, with storm chances jumping to 60–70%, especially during the afternoon hours. The setup behind this spike in activity is a classic example of how the jet stream can shape our weather. Right now, Texas is wedged between two large zones of high pressure—one out west and the other to the east—which are forcing the jet stream to lift north and then dip right over the state.
That dip in the upper-level flow opens the door for moist, unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico to rise into the atmosphere. Once that air lifts, it doesn’t take much to ignite widespread thunderstorms, and we’ll see those flare up both Saturday and Sunday.
Localized flooding possible
The main concern heading into the weekend is the potential for heavy rainfall, especially during Saturday afternoon. Some storms could drop torrential downpours in a short amount of time, leading to localized flooding—particularly in urban areas and low-lying spots where drainage is poor. A flood advisory has already been issued for parts of the region, and that could be expanded depending on how storms evolve.
No tropical threats in the near term
While the tropics are quiet for now, long-range models are hinting at a possible system forming off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday, July 20. That potential remains low, around 10%, and poses no immediate threat to the Texas coastline. Still, it’s something meteorologists will be keeping an eye on as we move deeper into hurricane season.
Typical July heat continues
Despite the rain, temperatures will remain solidly in the low to mid-90s°F (32–35°C) across Houston and much of Southeast Texas through the weekend and into next week. Overnight lows won’t offer much relief either, staying in the upper 70s°F (around 25°C). It’ll be hot, humid, and sticky, with little in the way of a cooldown once the sun sets.
After several weeks of above-normal storm activity, models suggest we’ll finally see a few drier days next week—though they’ll be blisteringly hot. It might be just enough of a break for folks to catch up on outdoor work or simply enjoy some sun before the next round of storms moves in.
